Non-GAAP Earnings Are About To Plunge The Most Since 2009; As For GAAP Don’ Even Ask…
By Tyler Durden
Now that Q4 EPS is almost in the history books with 494 S&P500 companies reporting, we can look at the numbers: blended 4Q EPS is $29.49 (-2.9% y/y) with GAAP EPS of $19.92. As DB admits, a 67% GAAP-to-non GAAP ratio is well below the normal ~90% ex. recessions, exacerbated by asset impairments and restructuring costs especially at Energy.
This is how DB shows this almost unprecedented divergence between GAAP and non-GAAP:
This is merely a recreation of
The chart below shows where the GAAP to non-GAAP divergence is most acute.
Ok, we get it: on a GAAP basis it is not a recession any more, it is a depression, just as that Houston CEO letter explained.
But what if we only look at adjusted, gimmicky non-GAAP? Even when looked at purely “pro forma”, things are bad. Recall that in the middle of 2015 when the full severity of the oil collapse was finally becoming apparent, the sellside was absolutely certain that the clouds would blow away by 2016, and as a result as recently as December 31, consensus expected Q1 EPS to post a modest 0.3% rise. That is not going to happen. Instead, as aof this moment, Q1 EPS is expected to collapse by a near record 8.0%, which would be the biggest annual decline since Q3 2009.
To all those saying “it’s all just energy”, we would say “yes… and 6 other sectors” as shown in the chart below. In fact, as of this moment, the only industries which are expected to post an EPS increase in Q1 are Telecom, Consumer Discretionary and Healthcare.
As Factset summarizes:
The estimated earnings decline for Q1 2016 is -8.0%. If this is the final earnings decline for the quarter, it will mark
the first time the index has seen four consecutive quarters of year-over-year declines in earnings since Q4 2008
through Q3 2009. It will also mark the largest year-over-year decline in earnings since Q3 2009 (-15.7%). Three
sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth in earnings, led by the Telecom Services and Consumer
Discretionary sectors. Seven sectors are projected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Energy,
Materials, and Industrials sectors.
So four consecutive quarters of declining earnings, or two earnings recessions back to back: recall what JPM said last night: “periods of consecutive EPS contractions are often followed by
(or coincide with) economic recessions (~80% of the time over the past
~120 years).” What about periods of two consecutive earnings recessions?
Don’t answer that, because it gets worse:
During the first two months of Q1 2016, analysts lowered earnings estimates for companies in the S&P 500 for the
quarter. The Q1 …read moreSource: Non-GAAP Earnings Are About To Plunge The Most Since 2009; As For GAAP Don’ Even Ask…
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