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By Tyler Durden

According to various anecdotal reports, in addition to launching the stock markets on an unprecedented meltup, Trump’s presidential victory has also boosted consumer confidence, leading to a spike in post-election spending.

That, however, is not only not validated by the actual data, but according to evidence, retail spending – a key component of the Trump “hope” trade – has actually slowed down.

One snapshot of what consumers did pre- and post-elections comes from the latest Bank of America credit and debit card data. The bank pulled daily card data and calculated “core control” sales which it defines as retail sales ex-autos, building materials, gasoline and groceries. It then indexed this spending on election day and compared it to the trends after the 2012 and 2008 elections. Noting the weekly pattern where sales pick up on the weekend, it finds that spending after the election was in line with the prior two election years. This year, sales accelerated a bit more as we approached the holiday season, however slowed down modestly in the days after. Overall, as BofA says, “there is little evidence of a particularly strong post-election boost in spending this year.“

A more interesting report, one which relies on satellite imagery to look at parking lot activity of multiple US retailers in the pre and post election season, as well as over the critical Thanksgiving and Black Friday period, comes from JPMorgan. The summary conclusion: the analysis suggests significant activity weakness at core US retail locations, as JPM finds “that Y/Y activity trends worsened post the election contrary to stock market moves and color from some management teams.”

Here are JPM’s findings:

• Leveraging Satellite big data. We are leveraging our own ability to manipulate and analyze large data sets against proprietary parking lot car count data from Orbital Insight. Orbital Insight collects satellite imagery and then applies proprietary machine learning based image recognition technology to count cars in parking lots on a daily basis. The data we are using here is comprised of over 280k daily datapoints spanning multiple years.
• Big picture trends negative. We observe a deterioration of total car counts in aggregate that has taken place more post the election than prior to it. We find this interesting as it is counter to prevailing thought on Thanksgiving demand but consistent with weaker early Fall retail trends.
  
• IT Hardware/Networking takeaways. We are already forecasting N. American handset units down 11% Y/Y in Q4 but we had been expecting very slight growth of 0.5% for PCs. Should consumer demand turn out sluggish over the Holiday season we believe Apple would be most impacted due to its high (~30% of unit volume) exposure to the US in Q4. QCOM, GLW and HPQ would also likely be impacted.
• Retailing/Dept. Stores & Specialty takeaways. Larger picture, average Holiday traffic across our sample of 11 retailers under coverage has moved from positive low single digits in 2014 to flattish in 2015 to negative mid-single digits in 2016. Near-term and consistent with our field work, 4Q16-to-date has been …read more

  Source: Satellite Imagery Reveals Sharp Retail Spending Slowdown After The Election

      

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  Posted December 9th, 2016 in Uncategorized.