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By Tyler Durden

Via ConvergEx's Nicholas Colas,

Want to know why US stocks feel so fragile? Perhaps we can blame Wall Street analysts. Even after two months of market buzz about lower taxes, infrastructure spending and less regulation juicing investor expectations for better earnings growth, they refuse to bump their revenue or earnings estimates for 2017.

Our monthly look at revenue expectations for the companies of the Dow shows Street analysts still cutting their numbers for Q1 – Q3 of 2017. About the only bright spot: they do expect revenue growth of 4.0% this year. As far as earnings expectations go, there is still no change to “Bottom up” earnings expectations for the S&P 500 of $133/share. That’s right where it’s been since before the election. Nearer term, analysts are still cutting their earnings expectations for Q1 2017. Now, markets are often happy to discount changes in Street expectations before they occur. Current valuations of 17x – high by historical standards – may be a ceiling on equity prices until both buyside and sellside have more confidence in incremental earnings growth. Next week – Trump’s first days in office – will be important in building that case. First impressions matter, after all…

With just three days to go before the inauguration, we still don’t know very much about what will come after January 20th. That uncertainty is creating the churn we’re seeing in capital markets. After the year end 2016 run-up for risk assets, everything seems to have hit a wall. On the other side of the barrier: a new administration that has made a lot of promises and will, naturally, want to start delivering just as soon as the clock strikes noon on Friday.

The largest unknown is just how President Elect Trump will prioritize and then negotiate the various pieces of his agenda. And since Mr. Trump has no track record in government and a very unconventional approach to communicating his thoughts, investors have less information and more questions about the incoming administration than any prior transition. It’s only a mild stretch to say that “Nobody knows nothing”, at least for a few more days.

Over the years we have written about two off beat personality indicators – digit ratios and birth order – and at this point we might as well toss those into the analytical bucket and see what they might tell us about Donald Trump and how he will adapt to his new job as the 45th President of the United States.

Here is some color on each:

Digit ratio is the relative length of a person’s second (pointer) to fourth (ring) finger. Feel free to look at your own hand right now. Is your ring finger longer than your pointer, or vice versa? (Men tend to have longer ring fingers than pointers, and women the opposite, but many other factors play a role.)

Researchers have spent years looking at this ratio in the context of …read more

Source: Trump’s (Not So) Invisible Hand

    

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Posted January 18th, 2017 in Uncategorized.