In London, Banker Bonuses Are Set To Disappear
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By Tyler Durden
Not only will Brexit be used as an excuse for companies to lower earnings guidance and for central banks to provide more quantitative easing, but it may also be a scapegoat for banker bonuses in London being slashed – everyone can let out their collective gasp now.
As we have been covering, banker jobs have been getting cut for quite some time now, most recently with RBS announcing it will be cutting another 900 jobs. Times have been difficult for banks leading up to Brexit, but now, as Bloomberg reports, the message London's investment banks are giving staff this year is that in the aftermath of Brexit, just be thankful to have a job, and forget a fat bonus at the end of the year.
“It's a great opportunity to blame Brexit, giving people the message 'you're lucky enough to have a job'” said Stephane Rambosson, managing partner at DHR executive search firm in London, adding that bonuses could fall 30% or more in some areas.
Jason Kennedy, CEO of recruitment firm Kennedy Group in London said “Reality is going to kick in, today it's about job preservation, rather than bonuses. Things are going to change, and some people shouldn't expect any bonuses.“
Jon Terry, a partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers in London, at least admits that things were falling apart even before Brexit: “If we hadn't had the referendum results, this year was looking pretty tough anyway. We haven't seen an end to various fines and compensation related to payment protection insurance and Libor. There are still billions of pounds being charged to the accounts. Ever since the financial crisis, there has been a need for reshaping the spend on compensation costs. Brexit is possibly one of the biggest catalysts for the next stage of reduction.”
As Bloomberg explains, banks have expressed concern that the slump will continue after the vote:
On the advisory side, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has said it expects a slump to continue as uncertainty about what Brexit will look like chills investment. The vote has already led to multiple deals being scrapped or reassessed. Even before the vote, announced mergers worldwide were down 11 percent from a year earlier, while global equity issuance fell by more than half.
Morgan Stanley analysts said in a note on June 29 that revenue from equities for European banks may fall about 18 percent in 2016, while fixed income and investment banking may decline about 13 percent each in the same period.
* * *
Wherever the banks choose to place the blame is irrelevant however, as the impact is real. Banks will continue to fire employees if activity doesn't pick up, and the truth of the matter is that for most in the industry, having a job at the end of the year will be a welcome sight, even if no bonuses get paid out.
Surprise: Refugees Are Making The Military Industrial Complex Even Richer
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By Tyler Durden
As Europe comes to terms with a Brexit vote fueled in large part by anti-immigrant hate-mongering, a new report exposes how war profiteers are influencing EU policy to make money from unending Middle East conflicts as well as the wave of refugees created by that same instability and violence.
The report (pdf), Border Wars: The Arms Dealers Profiting from Europe’s Refugee Tragedy, released jointly by the European Stop Wapenhandel and Transnational Institute (TNI) on Monday, outlines arms traders’ pursuit of profit in the 21st century’s endless conflicts.
“There is one group of interests that have only benefited from the refugee crisis, and in particular from the European Union’s investment in ‘securing’ its borders,'” the report finds. “They are the military and security companies that provide the equipment to border guards, the surveillance technology to monitor frontiers, and the IT infrastructure to track population movements.”
The report shows that “far from being passive beneficiaries of EU largesse, these corporations are actively encouraging a growing securitization of Europe’s borders, and willing to provide ever more draconian technologies to do this.”
In the past decade, the report says, corporate players have viewed intractable Middle East warfare as a windfall: “Several large international arms companies cited instability in the Middle East to assure investors about future prospects for their business. The arms companies are assisted by European governments, which actively promote European arms in the region and are very reluctant, to say the least, to impose stricter arms export policies.”
Indeed, “from 2005 to 2014, EU member states granted arms exports license to the Middle East and North Africa worth over 82 billion euros,” according to the report.
The report details how a steady flow of arms from outside the Middle East supplies all players in multi-part conflicts, such as Syria’s civil war, with an endless supply of high-tech weaponry—thus ensuring that those conflicts endure.
And as these wars create more and more refugees who seek asylum in Europe, the very same corporations are lobbying the EU to ‘securitize’ its borders against them—thus creating additional profit for those in the business of militarization.
Moreover, Stop Wapenhandel and TNI found “industry representatives, government officials and military and security personnel meet around the year at conferences, fairs and round tables.”
The report quotes Nick Vaughan-Williams, international security professor at the University of Warwick, saying: “At these events it is possible to identify a cyclical culture whereby the presentation of new technologies not only responds to, but also enables and drives the formulation of new policies and practices in the field of border security and migration management.”
And these “special fairs and congresses on border security are relatively new,” the report notes. “They all started within the last decade.”
“I believe the influence of the military and security industry on the shaping of the [EU’s] border security policy is quite big, especially on the securitization and militarization of these and on the expanding use of surveillance technology and data exchange,” Stop Wapenhandel’s Mark Akkerman told Common Dreams. “Industry efforts include regular interactions with …read more
Source: Surprise: Refugees Are Making The Military Industrial Complex Even Richer
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Some Refugees Are Being Sold For Organs
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By Tyler Durden
While there have been numerous headlines and stories that have come out of the immigrant crisis over the past year and a half, one recent revelation is particularly disturbing.
Migrants traveling from Africa to Europe who are unable to pay smugglers for their journey are being sold and killed for their organs the Independent reports.
Nuredein Wehabrebi Atta, a people smuggler who has been sentenced to five years in prison for his involvement in moving migrants, told Italian police that migrants who couldn't pay for journeys across the Mediterranean “were sold for €15,000 to groups, particularly Egyptians, who are equipped for harvesting organs.”
Atta's testimony helped break open a transnational network dedicated to migrant trafficking with Italian police confirming they have detained 38 people suspected of being involved: 25 Eritreans, 12 Ethiopians and one Italian. Interior Minister Angelino Alfano said the group used Rome for its financial transactions hub, and the arrests have dealt a “harsh blow” to the criminal network.
Atta had been granted witness protection in Italy in exchange for a confession, and an Eritrean man arrested in 2014 had collaborated with authorities in order to provide for the first time a complete picture of the trafficking operations.
From the Independent
Palermo police said in a statement that an Eritrean man who was arrested in 2014 collaborated with authorities, providing for the first time “a complete reconstruction of criminal activities” of migrant trafficking involving operations both in North Africa and Italy.
Mr Atta is the first foreigner to be granted witness protection in Italy. He said the shocking number of deaths among migrants attempting to cross the sea is what led him to confess, specifically the death of 360 due to a boat sinking in Lampedusa, though he said he was not involved in the incident.
“The deaths that we were aware of were a small part of it,” Mr Atta told police, according to local media. “In Eritrea alone there have been victims in eight out of 10 families.”
He said that migrants who can not afford to pay the smugglers are then sold to organ traffickers.
* * *
The number of refugees displaced by conflict was estimated to have reached a global total of 65 million, a record high, at the end of 2015. Sadly, much of this crisis (if not all) is driven by countries such as the United States meddling in other people's affairs and creating an even worse situation than was previously the case. Unfortunately, we don't believe this will cease being the case any time soon.
Source: Some Refugees Are Being Sold For Organs
This Is How They Protect Us!
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By Tyler Durden
Authored by Paul Craig Roberts,
The Latest TSA Horror
“These people think they are God. They think they can do anything they want.”
A partially blind, partially deaf young woman returning home from treatment for a brain tumor was brutally smashed to the ground by goon tug TSA “security” while her mother, a nurse, was shoved away.
The goon thugs responsible should get at least 30 years in a maximum security prison for assault with intent to kill. But nothing will happen to them. Their corrupt bosses always cover up for the psychopaths who occupy so many “security” and police positions from which they exercise unaccountable brutality over those of us forced to pay their salaries.
This is America today. We are forced to pay for our own brutilization by a criminal element that has taken refuge in “security” that “protects us.” We are in far more danger from the security forces allegedly protecting us than we are from terrorists. Indeed, the security forces are the terrorists.
Remember, during eight years of the Iraq War, US police killed more Americans than the US lost troops in combat. We needed our soldiers at home protecting us from the police, not over there “protecting” us from Iraqis who were not bothering us at all.
The only way to stop the continuous murder and brutalization of American citizens by “security” is to give the same jail sentences to the psychopaths, who comprise a large percentage of police, as are given to criminals without badges to hide behind. Until this happens, no one is safe, not even a handicapped young women traveling home from a hospital with her mother.
The same prison sentences should be given to executive branch officials who initiate wars of aggression on the basis of lies and fraud. These officials are criminals, not “world leaders.”
Read the article from the Guardian and weep for your lost country in which we are far less safe from “our” government than we were under King George. Indeed with Washington’s record of destroying seven countries in 15 years, no one in the world is safe from the government of “the land of liberty.”
America is now justice-proof. “Security” has so thoroughly inoculated us against justice that justice cannot happen in America. Winning some taxpayer money in a civil lawsuit is not justice. Justice is prison for the goon thug criminals with badges.
Source: This Is How They Protect Us!
Time To Take The Fed’s Warning Seriously: CMBS Has "Greatest Ever Monthly Delinquency Increase"
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By Tyler Durden
With three UK-based property funds, among them Standard Life, Aviva and M&G, all “freezing” assets in the past 2 days and suspending redemptions over fears of a swoon in UK housing prices, spreading panic shockwaves around the globe that the Brexit dominoes have come home to roost (to mix and match metaphors), it may not be a bad time time to jump across the Atlantic and look at US real-estate and in particular, commercial properties. As CMBS specialist Trepp wrote today in its weekly TreppWire commentary, the “Trepp CMBS delinquency rate moved noticeably higher in June, as the rate was pushed up by loans that reached their maturity date but were not paid off.” It was the fourth straight month that the rate has crept higher following two large decreases in January and February. The delinquency rate for US commercial real estate loans in CMBS is now 4.60%, an increase of 25 basis points from April.
This is in line with recent warnings from the Fed which just two weeks ago cautioned not only about another stock bubble when on June 21 it said that “forward price-to-earnings ratios for equities have increased to a level well above their median of the past three decades” but again warned that commercial real estate remains the most troubled sector: “valuation pressures have remained notable in the commercial real estate sector, to which some small banks have substantial exposures.” This includes not just bricks and mortar malls, which are losing bankrupt retail tenants by the hour, but also the collapse in the shale sector. It also includes a sudden spike in vacant office space.
Over the weekend, the Fed’s warning was validated not just by Trepp, but also by Morgan Stanley, whose Richard Hill looked at the latest CMBS 2.0 remittance reports and observed that in June, “delinquent loans rose by $142MM, including a potential reps breach.” As Hill puts it, “this delinquency increase was the greatest ever.” The silver lining: so too was the decline in specially serviced and watchlist loans, as near insolvent loans rolled off to delinquent status.
Here is the key highlight from MS’ summary of newly delinquent loans:
15 loans totaling $221MM became newly delinquent in June. In total, 71 loans with a balance of $760.6MM were delinquent in June, resulting in a delinquency rate of 32bp. The $142MM month-over-month increase in the volume of delinquent loans was the greatest ever – it eclipses the $116MM increase in March 2016 and compares to an average monthly increase of $40.7MM.
Some other observations on the state of CMBS 2.0:
- Specially serviced: There were four loans totaling $43.3MM that were newly transferred to ‘specially serviced’ this month, but the volume of loans declined by the most ever to $1B, resulting in a specially serviced rate of 42bp. There are currently 13 loans totaling $206MM that are delinquent but not specially serviced, including the largest loan to become newly delinquent this month. Looking forward, we expect the two CMBS 2.0 loans …read more
Source: Time To Take The Fed’s Warning Seriously: CMBS Has "Greatest Ever Monthly Delinquency Increase"
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Chinageddon – Gold Spikes As USDJPY, Yuan, Bond Yields Plunge
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By Tyler Durden
For the first time since March 2014, Gold is back above $1370, spiking higher as China opens. While silver has been celebrating way above Brexit spike highs, gold's initial reaction was far bigger and that spike high has now been taken out.
Across Asia things are moving fast. Bond yields in Taiwan are breaking to record lows, JGBs are at fresh record lows with 20Y yields reaching zero for the first time…
- *JAPAN'S 30-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO RECORD 0.015%
- *JAPAN'S 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS TO RECORD MINUS 0.27%
- *TAIWAN 10-YEAR GOVT BOND YIELD FALLS TO RECORD-LOW 0.695%
And USDJPY plunged to a 100 handle again…
And then China devalued The Yuan fix significantly…to the weakest agaionst the USD since Nov 2010
Source: Chinageddon – Gold Spikes As USDJPY, Yuan, Bond Yields Plunge
America Has Become A Lawless Nation – Hillary Clinton Magically Cleared By The FBI
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It is hard to be proud to be an American today after watching FBI director James Comey magically clear Hillary Clinton of all wrongdoing. Sadly, Comey is likely to go down in history as the man that struck the final death blow to the rule of law in America. During his address to the media, Comey admitted that Clinton sent or received 110 emails in 52 email chains that contained classified material at the time they were sent. But of course there were probably many more. Comey told the press that it was “likely that there are other work-related emails that they did not produce … that are now gone because they deleted all emails they did not return to State, and the lawyers cleaned their devices.” So basically Clinton turned over to the FBI whatever she felt like turning over, and then she destroyed the rest of the evidence. As a former lawyer, this infuriates me, but it doesn’t surprise me.
In fact, it doesn’t surprise me at all that Hillary Clinton was allowed to skate. I expected this all along. If you search the thousands of articles that I have posted on The Economic Collapse Blog and End Of The American Dream, you will find many articles where I say that Hillary Clinton should be in prison, but not a single one where I ever said that I thought she would be going to prison.
This is how politics in America works today. People like Bill and Hillary Clinton could openly sacrifice children to Satan on the White House lawn and still probably not get into trouble. Despite scandal after scandal going all the way back to Arkansas in the 1980s, nothing ever sticks to them, and nothing probably ever will.
In this case, FBI director James Comey essentially had to rewrite federal law in order to clear Clinton. This is something that Andrew McCarthy explained very well in his article entitled “FBI Rewrites Federal Law to Let Hillary Off the Hook”…
There is no way of getting around this: According to Director James Comey (disclosure: a former colleague and longtime friend of mine), Hillary Clinton checked every box required for a felony violation of Section 793(f) of the federal penal code (Title 18): With lawful access to highly classified information she acted with gross negligence in removing and causing it to be removed it from its proper place of custody, and she transmitted it and caused it to be transmitted to others not authorized to have it, in patent violation of her trust. Director Comey even conceded that former Secretary Clinton was “extremely careless” and strongly suggested that her recklessness very likely led to communications (her own and those she corresponded with) being intercepted by foreign intelligence services.
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In essence, in order to give Mrs. Clinton a pass, the FBI rewrote the statute, inserting an intent element that Congress did not require. The added intent element, moreover, makes no sense: The point of having a statute that criminalizes gross negligence …read more
Source: America Has Become A Lawless Nation – Hillary Clinton Magically Cleared By The FBI
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The Gold Standard: Friend Of The Middle Class
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By Tyler Durden
It has been theoretically demonstrated and seen in general practice that a monetary system of 100% metallic money devoid of central banking checks monetary inflation, prevents a general rise in the price level, and eliminates the dreaded business cycle while making all sorts of monetary mischief nearly impossible. A gold standard is not only economically superior to any paper money scheme, but is morally just, which is why it is hated by the politically well-connected, academics, politicians, and the rest of the Establishment.
Often not discussed, however, even by its proponents is the beneficial effect that “hard money” has for the middle class.
It is not a coincidence that since the U.S. left the last vestiges of the gold standard in 1971with President Nixon’s nefarious decision to no longer redeem international central bank payments in gold, real wages for Americans have stagnated. Nixon’s decision to put the nation on an irredeemable paper money standard set it on a course of economic ruination, which is why he should have been hounded from office not for his role in the bungled, petty cover up at the Watergate.
Stagnating wage rates have been confirmed by a number of studies, take, for instance one from the Pew Research Center which states that “today’s average hourly wage has just about the same purchasing power as it did in 1979. . . . [I]n real terms the average wage peaked more than 40 years ago: The $4.03-an-hour rate recorded in January 1973 has the same purchasing power as $22.41 would today.”*
While the absence of the gold standard has impoverished laborers, it has benefitted (not surprisingly) the very wealthy – hence, the reason why it was abandoned, as the Pew Study reports: “What gains have been made, have gone to the upper income brackets. Since 2000, usual weekly wages have fallen 3.7% (in real terms) among workers in the lowest tenth of the earnings distribution, and 3% among the lowest quarter. But among people near the top of the distribution, real wages have risen 9.7%.”
Of course, this was part of Nixon’s plan: redistribution of wealth from the middle class and low income groups via money printing to the political class. Such a scheme, however, could have only happened if the gold standard was eliminated.
Since the start of the abominable Obama Administration in 2009, the adjusted monetary base of the U.S. rose from $1.772 trillion to $3.966 trillion as of March 16, 2016. Of course, even these unfathomable figures as well as all other information supplied by the dominant media and government cannot be trusted. It, therefore, can be safely assumed that the real money supply is more than officially reported.
Money, like every other good, is subjected to the immutable law of supply and demand. Every increase in the money supply reduces the purchasing power of the monetary units which are already in circulation. Naturally, since wages are paid in dollars, increases in the supply of them will decrease their …read more
Source: The Gold Standard: Friend Of The Middle Class
The Revolt Against Globalism… Is Going Global
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By Tyler Durden
Submitted by Justin Raimondo via AntiWar.com,
There was William Galston at the European Council on Foreign Relations, listening to his fellow elitists and foreign policy honchos caviling about the rise of Donald Trump and bemoaning the fate of the European Union (EU) at the hand’s of Britain’s Euro-skeptics. As the assembled luminaries had a collective sad in their five-star hotel, wondering how the proles could’ve gotten so far out of hand, Galtson – longtime Democratic party hack, former domestic advisor to Bill Clinton, and a senior fellow at the “centrist” Brookings Institution – heard a call to arms. It was almost as if Cecil Rhodes, the British imperialist and original founder and financier of the Council on Foreign Relations, had spoken to him from on high – or, rather, from below – and commanded him to spread the Word far and wide:
“I realized that the stakes in the U.S. presidential election are even higher than I had thought. The fate of the entire postwar order hangs in the balance, and with it the prospects for democracy world-wide. Without vigorous American leadership, the prospects are not bright.”
Oh, yes, those shortsighted Little People are “turning inward,” and “this is understandable,” but, hey, “liberal internationalism is back on its heels” and the dreaded “ethno-nationalist populism” – i.e. resistance to the One World “global governance” schemes of Galston and his comrades – “is on the march.” What’s a globalist to do?
And it’s not just the English-speaking world that’s resisting the globalist agenda. Those Frenchies are getting restive, too, and the rest of Europe is balking at “the obvious candidate for continental leadership” for “historical reasons.” After all, everyone remembers the last time the Germans tried to impose “union” on the Europeans, so there’s that. See how prejudiced the Little People can be? They just don’t have the foresight to worry about the New Hitler – Vladimir Putin, if you even have to ask – who “senses a historic opportunity to exploit Europe’s divisions for his own purposes.” Why, he actually wants to trade with Europe, and that would undermine the war plans of the CFR types, who are fixated on restarting the cold war. Of course, they don’t actually say that in so many words, but the intent is clear enough. They put it like this:
“If Europe doesn’t hold together when facing a rearmed and resurgent Russia, the gains for democracy and free markets since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union may well be rolled back.”
You know, “democracy” – like in Ukraine, where EU–inspired mobs overthrew the elected President and the coup leaders immediately launched a vicious war against their own people in east Ukraine, killing many thousands and unleashing neo-Nazi regiments like the Azov Battalion on those who dared to resist. That’s “democracy” for you! And alarm bells should go off whenever you hear a top advisor to Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and Walter Mondale hail …read more
Source: The Revolt Against Globalism… Is Going Global
Small Business Owner Explains Options: "Close, Hike Prices, Or Eliminate Jobs"
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By Tyler Durden
The mad dash to increase the minimum wage continues. Earlier we reported that New York and California had passed legislation that would raise the minimum wage to $15, and in June the District of Columbia also voted unanimously to raise the minimum wage to $15 as well.
In a statement sent to The Daily Signal, D.C. Council Chairman Phil Mendelson said the following:
The District can be an expensive place to live and therefore the concern about the minimum wage is more acute than would be the case is other areas of the country. I expect that the District will not be alone in the Washington metropolitan region, as similar legislation is pending in populous Montgomery County, Maryland.
One small business owner is not so thrilled about the announcement however. Carolina Story, co-owner of Straw Stick & Brick Delicatessen in northwest Washington said she is in shock about the minimum wage hike. “It puts a big stop on little startups like ours” Story said.
As The Daily Signal reports, Story took to Facebook in order to rant a bit about what the hike means to small business, especially Straw Stick & Brick. Story quickly added up the additional labor costs that the deli would would be forced to deal with as it struggles to stay profitable.
This means that a small business like mine—that needs to fill at least 11 entry level positions would have to pay those employees around $31,000 each per year which would amount to approximately $363,000 per year. Of course we would still need to fill at least [three] management positions which would obviously demand more than minimum wage—say maybe $40,000 per year on the low end (these positions deserve more pay but because of the entry level positions I am forced to be conservative).
That means that our yearly labor cost might rise to $483,000 in 2020. Business owners in my situation would need to make $1,932,000.00 per year in order to have a healthy business, pay ourselves a living wage, and cover fixed and variable costs.
Story went on to tell The Daily Signal that her original business plan now needs to be changed completely.
“All I know is that when I was working on my business plan, I knew what the cost was and I did not anticipate it growing from that to this within such a short period of time. It completely changes the business plan.”
The deli, which has a staff of less than a dozen people, hires college and high school students to fill some positions and all current employees make above minimum wage. Story also hits upon the primary function of entry level jobs, which is to gain experience and move on – something that will go away as minimum wages continue to increase and small businesses can't afford to pay the labor cost.
“I have people who we hire to slice meat. They don't want to do that forever. They basically come in here so they can go on to their next …read more
Source: Small Business Owner Explains Options: "Close, Hike Prices, Or Eliminate Jobs"
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