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Precious Metal Pandemonium – Silver Spikes Limit-Up, Gold Surges As China FX Basket Hits Record Low

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By Tyler Durden

Update: Silver just exploded above $21 – up almost 8% – its biggest single day surge since September 2013. Silver is limit up on SHFE as Gold is also surging back towards Brexit highs near $1360… China's CFETS Renminbi basket just hit a record low..

All of this is happening as China's currency collapses to a record low since it began being published against a broad basket of majors…

As we detailed earlier, e xtending Friday's gains, Silver futures just broke above $20 for the first time since August 2014…

And Gold topped $1350 once again…

Following silver's best week since August 2013, dramatically catching up to gold's recent performance, it appears, despite the volumeless meltup in stocks, that Brexit has sparked huge demand for the safety of precious metals.

For a second straight week, funds boosted their net-long futures and options positions in the two metals to the highest since the data begins in 2006.

Money managers have been piling in on demand for havens and speculation that interest rates will stay low as central bankers around the world struggle to contain the economic fallout from the U.K.’s vote to quit the European Union.

But what happens next?

As a reminder, on April 21st PIMCO's Harley Bassman suggested “The Fed should monetize gold”…

In “Rumpelstiltskin at the Fed“, Bassman goes down the well-trodden path of proposing Fed asset purchases as the last ditch panacea for the US economy, however instead of buying bonds, or stocks, or crude oil, Bassman has a truly original idea: “the Fed should unleash a massive Fed gold purchase program that could echo a Depression-era effort that effectively boosted the U.S. economy.“

He is of course, referring to FDR's 1933 Executive Order 6102, which made it illegal for a citizen to own gold bullion or coins. Americans promptly sold their gold to the government at the official price of $20.67, with the resulting hoard of gold was then placed in Fort Knox.

The Gold Reserve Act of 1934 raised the official price of gold to $35.00, a near 70% increase. It also resulted in an implicit devaluation of the US dollar. As Bassman points out, over the three years from January 1934 to December 1936, GDP increased by 48%, the Dow Jones stock index rose by nearly 80%, and most salient to our topic, inflation averaged a positive 2% annually, despite a national unemployment rate hovering around 18%.

In short, a brief economic nirvana which was unleashed by the devaluation of the dollar confiscation of gold. In fact, we have frequently hinted in the past that another Executive Order 6102 is inevitable for precisely these reasons. However this is the first time when we see a “respected economist” openly recommend this idea as a matter of monetary policy.

Bassman …read more

Source: Precious Metal Pandemonium – Silver Spikes Limit-Up, Gold Surges As China FX Basket Hits Record Low

    

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Posted July 4th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Old Men Start Wars, Young Men Die In Them

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Laurence Vance via LewRockwell.com,

“Older men start wars, but younger men fight them.” ~ Albert Einstein

“Older men declare war. But it is the youth that must fight and die.” ~ Herbert Hoover

“I’m fed up to the ears with old men dreaming up wars for young men to die in.” ~ George S. McGovern

One hundred years ago – on July 1, 1916 – thousands of young men died after older men decided, again, to send them to war. On the first day of the Battle of the Somme, the British army suffered 57,470 casualties, of which 19,240 were deaths, the French had 1,590 casualties, and the Germans had over 10,000. It was the single greatest day for casualties in British military history. By the time the Battle of the Somme ended in November, the British had around 420,000 casualties, the French about 200,000, and the Germans about 500,000.

One would think that when almost 20,000 of your young men in the prime of their life die in one battle on one day that the British would simply say “enough is enough” and just tell the army to quit fighting and go home. But no, the British army continued to execute men for desertion like the hundred or more that suffered that fate in the two years before the Battle of the Somme.

It is senseless slaughter like the Battle of the Somme that led Ernest Hemingway, who was an ambulance driver in Italy toward the end of World War I, to say:

They wrote in the old days that it is sweet and fitting to die for one’s country. But in modern war there is nothing sweet nor fitting in your dying. You will die like a dog for no good reason.

Never think that war, no matter how necessary, nor how justified, is not a crime.

Over 115,000 American soldiers would go on to die like dogs for no good reason after the United States foolishly and senselessly entered World War I in April of 1917. The thousands of U.S. troops who in more recent times died in Iraq and Afghanistan likewise senselessly died in vain and for a lie.

How do you prevent such senseless slaughter? How do you stop young men from dying in vain? How do you prohibit young men from dying for a lie? How do you stop making widows and orphans? How do you thwart young men dying like dogs? How do you stop young men from dying for no good reason? How do you end the war once and for all?

It is an uphill battle.

Governments, presidents, politicians, and military officers will continue to send young men to fight and die.

The military establishment will continue to want more money and more weapons of war to try out.

Legislatures will continue to fund bloated military budgets.

Defense contractors—merchants of death—will continue to lobby for more armaments, more military interventions, and more wars.

Uber-patriots, neocons, armchair warriors, just war theorists, progressive hawks, reich-wing nationalists, red-state fascists, pro-lifers for mass …read more

Source: Old Men Start Wars, Young Men Die In Them

    

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Posted July 4th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Silver Spikes Over $20 As Post-Brexit Panic Sends Precious Metals’ Positioning To Record Highs

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By Tyler Durden

Extending Friday's gains, Silver futures just broke above $20 for the first time since August 2014…

Following silver's best week since August 2013, dramatically catching up to gold's recent performance, it appears, despite the volumeless meltup in stocks, that Brexit has sparked huge demand for the safety of precious metals.

For a second straight week, funds boosted their net-long futures and options positions in the two metals to the highest since the data begins in 2006.

Money managers have been piling in on demand for havens and speculation that interest rates will stay low as central bankers around the world struggle to contain the economic fallout from the U.K.’s vote to quit the European Union.

But what happens next?

Source: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Silver Spikes Over $20 As Post-Brexit Panic Sends Precious Metals’ Positioning To Record Highs

    

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Posted July 4th, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Black Trump Supporter Exposes Truth About "The Black Vote"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Kristin Campbell via ConservativeTribune.com,

Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump and his supporters have been accused of being “racist,” which isn’t exactly an uncommon label given to Republicans by liberals.

However, one black Trump supporter recently dropped an epic truth bomb about what black voters really want out of the American dream, and if true, it should have them lining up to vote Republican in massive numbers.

Podcaster and blogger Sonnie Johnson told Breitbart that many black voters fully understand and support Trump’s message of wealth over poverty.

“This message is very simple,” Johnson said. “It is wealth over poverty. If you do not think that blacks understand that message, you have lost your entire mind.”

The outspoken conservative explained that black Americans were “tired of living in poverty.”

“We want greatness. We do not want to be dependent. We do not want free s***,” she said. “We want to be able to operate in the American system, just the way every other American operates, and that takes wealth.”

Johnson said she believed that Republicans had an opportunity this year to “crack this progressive shell,” which has already sustained some cracks from Trump’s campaign.

In fact, she insisted that black people have already begun to realize that the presumptive GOP nominee’s message was one for all Americans, not just white voters – even if the media doesn’t portray his growing support in the black community.

“If you go back, if you look on Twitter right now, to see all of the blacks that are in support of Donald Trump, every stat they show, shows that that support doesn’t exist. Every person they put on says that black people will not support Trump,” Johnson explained.

The blogger considered this election this “chance of a lifetime” when it comes to recruiting black voters to the GOP, but said Republicans must put forth the right message in order to do so.

“If we can … start talking about the American Dream — what it has to offer, what we as the right wing have to offer!” she said. “Freedom, liberty, financial independence, those are things that we can sell.”

Many polls have reported that the black vote comprised a mere 1 percent of Trump’s overall support — something Johnson strongly rejected.

“No way,” she said. “They poll Democrats. They poll people that are used to voting for Democrats and just put their name down. They did not poll average black people.”

These “average black people” are listening to the Republican message of conservative values through Trump, she argued.

You can listen to the entire interview here:

Johnson is right — the Republican Party has more to offer anyone searching for “freedom” or “financial independence.” While Democrat policies have sought to keep black people dependent and on the government dole, conservatism offers the proven concept that smaller government equals more freedom.

German Arms Exports Nearly Double In 2015

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By Tyler Durden

The US isn't the only country to can crank up its sales of weapons around the world. As we have pointed out previously, Germany is also a relatively large exporter in the global arms trade.

It turns out that Germany had a booming arms export business in 2015, because as Reuters reports, German arms exports almost doubled last year to their highest level since the beginning of this century. The value of individual approvals granted for exporting arms was €7.86 billion last year compared to €3.97 billion in 2014. Exports were boosted by a the approval of four tanker aircraft for Britain worth €1.1 billion, and a controversial approval of battle tanks and howitzers along with munitions to be sent to Qatar.

From Reuters

Newspaper Welt am Sonntag said the value of individual approvals granted for exporting arms was 7.86 billion euros ($8.75 billion) last year compared with 3.97 billion euros worth of arms exports in 2014.

It said the Economy Ministry had pointed to special factors that boosted arms exports such as the approval of four tanker aircraft for Britain worth 1.1 billion euros.

It also pointed to the approval of battle tanks and tank howitzers along with munitions and accompanying vehicles worth 1.6 billion euros for Qatar – a controversial deal that the report said was approved in 2013 by the previous government.

The Economy Ministry declined to comment on the report.

In February German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel said preliminary figures showed that Germany had given approval for around 7.5 billion euros worth of arms shipments in 2015.

The Federal Office for Economics and Export Control (Bafa), a subsidiary of the economy ministry, is responsible for licensing arms export deals and Gabriel had promised to take a much more cautious approach to licensing arms exports, especially with regard to the Middle East.

Germany is one of the world's main arms exporters to EU and NATO countries and has been cutting its sales of light weapons outside those states.

Last year the government rejected 100 applications for arms export approvals – the same number as in the previous year, Welt am Sonntag reported. It said Berlin had given 12,687 applications the green light in 2015 – 597 more than in the previous year.

According to Deutsche Welle, Qatar, a Gulf Arab state has been labeled by German opposition parties as an alleged source of funding for ISIS, which is why the receipt of tanks and heavy artillery, as well as ammunition and accompanying vehicles makes it a controversial sale.

From DW

Qatar, a Gulf Arab state panned by German opposition parties as an alleged source of funding for the “Islamic State” (IS) terror militia, received combat tanks and heavy artillery, as well as ammunition and accompanying vehicles worth 1.6 billion euros.

Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel, who heads the Social Democrats, had tried to stop the delivery to Qatar but was outvoted by other ministers on Germany's Federal Security Council.

That deal had already been cleared in 2013 by Chancellor …read more

Source: German Arms Exports Nearly Double In 2015

    

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Posted July 3rd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

A Former NYMEX Trader Explains "The Mechanics Of Silver Manipulation"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted Vincent Lanci, as posted originally on Marketslant

The Mechanics of Silver Manipulation

JPMorgan Chase on Wednesday won the dismissal of three private antitrust lawsuits, including from hedge fund manager Daniel Shak, accusing the largest U.S. bank of rigging a market for silver futures contracts traded on COMEX. The lawsuits accused JPMorgan of having in late 2010 and early 2011 placed artificial bids (i.e., spoofing) onto the trading floor, harassed employees at metals market COMEX to obtain prices it wanted (i.e., intimidation) and made misrepresentations to a committee that set settlement prices. (i.e., manipulating settlements).

What follows is how JPM manipulated the silver markets by selling the Silver contango during illiquid hours, then used their deep pockets to push settlements, then waited until margin calls made the large locals puke their positions. JPM in effect stretched the relationship between forward rates and futures spreads until they made no sense anymore. Not unlike a company trading at 50x earnings. It cannot last long. But it only has to last long enough until the guy with the position opposite you has to liquidate. That guy does not have access to cheap money, political influence or the most physical silver in the world in a single vault at his disposal to create a squeeze.

From Reuters:

U.S. District Judge Paul Engelmayer in Manhattan, however, said the plaintiffs, who also included traders Mark Grumet and Thomas Wacker, did not show that JPMorgan made “uneconomic” bids, or intended to rig the market at counterparties’ expense. He also questioned the plaintiffs’ use of Silver Indicative Forward Mid Rates (“SIFO”) as a benchmark for determining proper levels for the spreads in their lawsuits.

Analysis: The demand was fabricated

The market was only partially backwardated. Spot was below the next 6 expirations. Translation: there was no massive demand for immediate delivery. There was only demand in months where the last remaining MEN who took risk trading their own money had positions. JPM’s own book was likely short and had to get liquidity to cover their positions. We knew Shak from our floor days, and were trading spreads off-floor when this happened. They should not have lost this case. Comex traders do not trade physical spot. Spot was under the backwardation. Smoking gun? No, but damning circumstantial evidence in the least.

Reuters Again:

Given the (lawsuits’) failure both to explain why SIFO should track silver futures spreads, and to concretely plead that it did so consistently, a mere general correlation between these two is not sufficient to make SIFO a reliable benchmark such that deviations from it support a claim of irrational pricing animated by anticompetitive aims,” Engelmayer wrote.

Analysis: a poor job was done explaining the role of SIFO in spread pricing.

SIFO represents the spread between expirations of FORWARD physical contracts in silver. The futures spread markets are derivative of the SIFO spreads. SIFO represents the cost-of-carry for physical silver and is used in determining lease/borrow rates over periods of time. These are in-turn extrapolated and the dominant factor in determining futures spreads on COMEX. Comex …read more

Source: A Former NYMEX Trader Explains "The Mechanics Of Silver Manipulation"

    

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Posted July 3rd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

"Vince Foster’s Ghost" Reappears – A Blast From The Archive Past

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By Tyler Durden

Just a month after Trump called out the Vince Foster “suicide” as “very fishy” to say the least, the documentary “Foster's Ghost” has resurfaced from the archives, detailing the unusual situation surrounding the death of Bill Clinton's best friend and personal lawyer…

According to the WaPo, “Trump said another topic of potential concern is the suicide of former White House aide Vincent Foster, which remains the focus of intense and far-fetched conspiracy theories on the Internet.“

Conspiracy theory or not, the issue of Foster's death may just hit a live nerve in the Clinton campaign, something that is the ultimate goal of Trump.

One issue on Trump’s radar is the 1993 death of Foster, which has been ruled a suicide by law enforcement officials and a subsequent federal investigation. But some voices on the far right have long argued that the Clintons may have been involved in a conspiracy that led to Foster’s death.

He called theories of possible foul play “very serious” and the circumstances of Foster’s death “very fishy.”

“He had intimate knowledge of what was going on,” Trump said, speaking of Foster’s relationship with the Clintons at the time. “He knew everything that was going on, and then all of a sudden he committed suicide.”

He added, “I don’t bring [Foster’s death] up because I don’t know enough to really discuss it. I will say there are people who continue to bring it up because they think it was absolutely a murder. I don’t do that because I don’t think it’s fair.”

As Martin Armstrong explains, it has long been talked about behind the curtain that Vince Foster was murdered in the White House and his body was then moved to a park to ensure the non-controllable police would not have jurisdiction.

The murder was neatly called a suicide claiming Foster was prescribed the anti-depressant medication Trazodone over the phone by his Arkansas doctor, but a small dose that would not have helped. The next day, Foster was found dead in Fort Marcy Park, a federal park in Virginia where jurisdiction could be controlled.

Vince Foster was from the Rose Law firm and knew everything about the Clintons. He was very upset about the investigation into them and was deeply afraid of having to testify. He appears to have been murdered in the White House and his body was then moved to the federal park. Foster was found with a gun in his hand and gunshot residue on that hand. An autopsy determined that he was shot in the mouth and no other wounds were found on his body. But that was just the start of the cover-up. What was withheld, according to investigators I personally know on Capitol Hill, was the fact that a piece of his head where the bullet came out the back was not there. This suggested his body had been removed. But that was just for starters.

Patrick Knowlton is the man who found Foster’s body who disagreed with the “official” facts of …read more

Source: "Vince Foster’s Ghost" Reappears – A Blast From The Archive Past

    

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Posted July 3rd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

"Vince Foster’s Ghost" Reappears – A Blast From The Archive Past

Find The Lowest Price HERE


By Tyler Durden

Just a month after Trump called out the Vince Foster “suicide” as “very fishy” to say the least, the documentary “Foster's Ghost” has resurfaced from the archives, detailing the unusual situation surrounding the death of Bill Clinton's best friend and personal lawyer…

According to the WaPo, “Trump said another topic of potential concern is the suicide of former White House aide Vincent Foster, which remains the focus of intense and far-fetched conspiracy theories on the Internet.“

Conspiracy theory or not, the issue of Foster's death may just hit a live nerve in the Clinton campaign, something that is the ultimate goal of Trump.

One issue on Trump’s radar is the 1993 death of Foster, which has been ruled a suicide by law enforcement officials and a subsequent federal investigation. But some voices on the far right have long argued that the Clintons may have been involved in a conspiracy that led to Foster’s death.

He called theories of possible foul play “very serious” and the circumstances of Foster’s death “very fishy.”

“He had intimate knowledge of what was going on,” Trump said, speaking of Foster’s relationship with the Clintons at the time. “He knew everything that was going on, and then all of a sudden he committed suicide.”

He added, “I don’t bring [Foster’s death] up because I don’t know enough to really discuss it. I will say there are people who continue to bring it up because they think it was absolutely a murder. I don’t do that because I don’t think it’s fair.”

As Martin Armstrong explains, it has long been talked about behind the curtain that Vince Foster was murdered in the White House and his body was then moved to a park to ensure the non-controllable police would not have jurisdiction.

The murder was neatly called a suicide claiming Foster was prescribed the anti-depressant medication Trazodone over the phone by his Arkansas doctor, but a small dose that would not have helped. The next day, Foster was found dead in Fort Marcy Park, a federal park in Virginia where jurisdiction could be controlled.

Vince Foster was from the Rose Law firm and knew everything about the Clintons. He was very upset about the investigation into them and was deeply afraid of having to testify. He appears to have been murdered in the White House and his body was then moved to the federal park. Foster was found with a gun in his hand and gunshot residue on that hand. An autopsy determined that he was shot in the mouth and no other wounds were found on his body. But that was just the start of the cover-up. What was withheld, according to investigators I personally know on Capitol Hill, was the fact that a piece of his head where the bullet came out the back was not there. This suggested his body had been removed. But that was just for starters.

Patrick Knowlton is the man who found Foster’s body who disagreed with the “official” facts of …read more

Source: "Vince Foster’s Ghost" Reappears – A Blast From The Archive Past

    

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Posted July 3rd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Edward Snowden Summarizes America’s Choices (In One Tweet)

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By Tyler Durden

It appears America is united in one thing… its hatred of the current choices…

“Laws control the lesser man, right conduct controls the greater one, and neither control politicians.” #TwainOn2016 pic.twitter.com/71Jxh0L4As

— Edward Snowden (@Snowden) July 3, 2016

…read more

Source: Edward Snowden Summarizes America’s Choices (In One Tweet)

    

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Posted July 3rd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

Steen Jakobsen Exposes The Policymakers’ "Comical Ali" Strategy

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By Tyler Durden

f

Submitted by Steen Jakobsen, CIO & Chief Economist Saxo Bank, via TradingFloor.com,

  • Brexit could accelerate process of much-needed reform
  • Macro policymakers including central banks will try to maintain status quo
  • Policymakers have become equivalent of Iraqi minister comical Ali
  • The reluctance to accept what is happening will be there undoing

What's that coming over the hill, is it a new world? Is it a new world?

I am writing this chronicle from South Africa which is almost as far away from Europe and the constant and never ending Brexit talk as you can come. It's hard even here to avoid the turbulence and never ending 'need' for investors and media to understand what comes next.

The best analogy I can use is one from my extensive travels: When you arrive at an airport to check in, you have to pass security control when two options are at hand: The fast track or the slow version (economy class). Using the fast track gets you quicker to the gate and allows you pre-boarding, but what really should matter is that the actual flight time and route is the same for everyone in business and in economy. We arrive at EXACTLY the same time.

The point? What is now transpiring in an economic sense is that we have entered the fast track courtesy of Brexit, the selloff in GBP, the lowering of growth projections and in some places talk about reform and change which would have happened with or without the Leave vote.

The UK's problem remains their double deficit. The chronic budget and the current account deficits. The last time the UK ran a surplus on the current account was the year Italy won the World Cup in Spain and the top scorer was Paolo Rossi. you guessed it — 1982.

The UK also has the lowest productivity of the G7 countries together with Japan. Yes, the UK needs a lower GBP and desperately so and if the ERM crisis of 1992 is any guideline, what comes next for UK is more employment and stronger GDP as seen in this chart from the excellent research done by Societe General.

It would be naive to anticipate only positive changes from the increased political uncertainty but do realise that the slowdown in the UK but also Europe was happening before the surprise 'Leave' result.

d

The much needed change that the voters indicated was required will come, but the macro policymakers, the politicians and central bankers, will have one more attempt at selling us an economic model of more intervention and less rigid compliance with both the EU treaty and the economic laws:

For those of you who have forgotten your economics, one-on-one here is what five years in University should teach you:

The real drivers of growth are productivity, demographics, basic research and education and as little as possible red tape and intervention (no macro please).

This should be supported by a market model where capital is allocated …read more

Source: Steen Jakobsen Exposes The Policymakers’ "Comical Ali" Strategy

    

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Posted July 3rd, 2016 in Uncategorized.

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