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By Tyler Durden

Stocks may have decided to put Brexit in the rear view mirror, but as Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid lists, there are still numerous outstanding questions.

• When will Article 50 be triggered?
• Will it ever be triggered?
• Will there ever actually be a Brexit?
• Who is the next Conservative leader?
• Will there be a snap general election?
• Will Jeremy Corbyn cling on to the leadership of the Labour Party in spite of a stunning 172/212 MPs in his party supporting a no confidence vote in him? Will the UK have a 2nd referendum?
• On any negotiations will Europe play hard ball or compromise?
• Will the UK let down swathes of the ‘leave’ voters and strike a compromise deal (eg like Norway) that doesn’t address the immigration issue at the heart of many voters’ fears?
• Elsewhere will Italy lose the senate reform referendum in October and could Italy have an EU referendum after a fresh election?
• And will the French elections next year be another spoke in the wheel for Europe?

Keep in mind, these are only the known unknowns. As Jim Reid writes, these questions and many more will remain mostly unanswered for many months which is sure to keep risk premiums on the higher side. However yesterday was a day for thinking the glass as being 10% full rather than 90% empty as various theories were distributed about whether Brexit would actually ever happen or whether some market friendly outcome would eventually be seen.

There’s a possibility of such outcomes but we won’t know that for many many months and possibly much longer so expect lots of mood swings ahead as the prevailing mood changes but there was definitely an air that full Brexit wasn’t necessarily a done deal yesterday.

My favourite comment across the day though was from the Luxembourg PM Xavier Bettel who said “Married or divorced, but not something in between. We are not on Facebook with ‘it’s complicated’ as a status”. Those were the days!!

That came alongside a flurry of other chatter from various EU leaders, all of which appeared to turn up the pressure valve on Cameron and the UK. Late in the evening we heard German Chancellor Merkel come out and say that ‘as of this evening, I see no way back from the Brexit vote’ and that ‘this is no time for wishful thinking, but to rather grasp reality’. Leaders from Belgium, Sweden and Denmark all voiced their frustrations and urged the UK to move quickly towards exit so as to reduce the uncertainty. Meanwhile French President Francois Hollande also added that the ‘UK won’t be able to access the single market without applying the rules of freedom of movement’. Interestingly, yesterday French press Le Figaro released an opinion poll which showed 45% of French citizens would be in favour of remaining in the EU, versus 33% against. Given all of the events of the last week, polls like this will only take on more and more focus.

Or not. Judging by …read more

Source: Brexit: Here Are The Latest Known Unknowns

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By Tyler Durden

The death toll from Tuesday’s attack on this city’s main airport has risen to 41, including 13 foreign nationals, with 239 injured, the Istanbul governor’s office said Wednesday. Despite the attack, Istanbul Atatürk Airport resumed business Wednesday morning the WSJ reported. Television footage from inside the airport showed check-in lines functioning normally. Turkish Airlines, the country’s flag carrier, said its flight operations had resumed, though the airport’s arrivals and departures board showed heavy cancellations and delays.

AbduRahman Hussein, a filmmaker from Sana’a, Yemen, was about to eat at one of the terminal’s second-floor restaurants when he heard shots and explosions. “I saw the smoke,” he said in a direct message on Facebook. “Then I started running away.” He posted pictures of shattered glass and people running. The dramatic explosion was caught on tape:

And with the damage now largely accounted for, it’s time to cast blame which Turkey was eager to do when Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said in televised remarks that the Islamic State is likely responsible for the killings. “Once again, it has been understood that terrorism is a global threat to all countries and nations and must be fought through mutual cooperation,” Yildirim said. “Our country has the necessary power and determination to overcome over these heinous attacks.”

Erdogan said in an e-mailed statement that the Istanbul airport attack was an effort to hurt Turkey’s image. “For the terrorist organizations, there’s no difference between Istanbul and London, Ankara and Berlin,” he said, urging all countries to join forces against terrorism.

What is odd is that the Islamic State, traditionally eager to immediately take responsibility for foreign terror operations, has kept silent: there was no immediate claim of responsibility. Both Islamist, leftist and Kurdish militants have carried out bomb attacks in Turkey in recent months, hammering the nation’s vital tourism. Tourist arrivals to Turkey fell almost 35 percent in May from a year earlier, the fastest drop in at least a decade and following a 28 percent decline in April.

Here is what is known: three suicide bombers opened fire and then blew themselves up in rapid succession at the airport around 9:20 p.m., Yildirim said from the Istanbul airport, where he assessed the damage and met with emergency personnel. The attacks left more than 200 people wounded, the governor’s office in Istanbul said by phone on Wednesday. Many of Turkey’s children ended school terms this month, which coincides with the Islamic holy month of Ramadan.

The assaults took place near security checkpoints at the entrance to the airport’s arrivals hall. Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag told lawmakers in parliament earlier that at least one attacker had sprayed gunfire from a Kalashnikov automatic assault rifle. None of the assailants got past security controls, according to a Turkish official who asked not to be identified because he’s not authorized to talk to the press. He said two of them detonated their vests at the arrival hall, and a third in a nearby parking lot.

ISIS lack of confirmation aside, Turkey’s insistence that the Islamic State was …read more

Source: Islamic State Blamed For Istanbul Terror Attack That Killed 41

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By Tyler Durden

No idea how to trade Brexit, and simply following the momentum-driven crowd which in turn is trading on hopes of central bank intervention? Don’t worry, you are not alone. As Citi admits “No one knows how to price the Brexit scenario going forward.”

Here is Citi’s William Lee “clarifying” the prevailing market cluelessness:

The UK vote to leave the EU surprised almost everyone, especially market participants. It left unprecedented uncertainty about future economic and political relations between the UK and the EU.

From the US perspective, the market selloff has been large but orderly. Indeed, global markets began to stabilize today, after two days of probing for equilibrium prices and their implied trajectories going forward.

Whereas spot prices have stabilized, there appears to be little conviction among traders and other financial market participants about the course of exchange rates and asset prices going forward.

• Market sentiment remains tentative; small catalysts can be very disruptive.
• A common trading floor comment is: “No one knows how to price the Brexit scenario going forward.”

Our past research has shown that uncertainty is pernicious: it can induce a significant drag on economic growth. The Brexit vote amplifies uncertainty with unprecedented economic and political considerations whose impact on global economic activity is difficult to discern. Fed policy remains sensitive to market sentiment, and the FOMC likely would not do anything that could be disruptive.

…read more

Source: Don’t Worry, You Are Not Alone: "No One Knows How To Price Brexit" Citi Admits

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By Tyler Durden

Back in April President Obama took a trip over to the UK in order to lecture another country on how to vote – Obama of course was staunchly in the Remain camp. Obama even penned an op-ed titled: “As your friend, let me say that the EU makes Britain even greater.”

Of course, we all know the historic outcome of the Brexit vote, and we have even asked if it was Barack Obama who actually was the deciding factor:

UKIP leader Nigel Farage has never been shy of course, but lately has been making sure to remember all of those who tried to downplay or influence the vote. For example, in his first appearance in the European Parliament since the Brexit vote, Farage took the time to make sure the audience knew he hadn't forgotten that everyone laughed when Farage said that he was going to lead a campaign to get Britain to leave the EU, saying “You're not laughing now are you.”

Farage hadn't forgotten Obama's attempt to influence the vote either. In a recent interview with Fox News, Farage was asked what can be done about Putin if the UK isn't in the EU, to which Farage raged that Obama had behaved disgracefully when compared to Putin.

“Well ultimately let me say this, Vladimir Putin behaved in a more statesmanlike manner than President Obama did in this referendum campaign. Obama came to Britain and I think behaved disgracefully, telling us we'd be at the back of the queue. Treating us, America's strongest, oldest ally, in this extraordinary way. Vladimir Putin maintained his silence throughout the whole campaign.”

* * *

Oh that does it, Obama won't be inviting Farage on any of the remaining 36-hold golf outings!

…read more

Source: Nigel Farage Batters Obama: "He Came To Britain And Behaved Disgracefully"

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Olav Dirkmaat via UFM Market Trends,

The delinquency rate on loans is key in understanding banking. It answers one question: what percentage of loans is overdue for payment? The delinquency rate is by far the most useful indicator for “credit stress.” It seems, however, as if delinquency no longer counts. Few are paying attention to the quick and sudden rise of the delinquency rate. What does it tell us and is a new banking crisis imminent?

This Is What Happened after Janet Yellen Hiked the Fed Funds Rate in December

I have said it many times over and I will repeat it here: the last time around, it took Fed-chairman Alan Greenspan over two years and seventeen rate hikes to bring the Fed funds rate from a then all-time-low of 1% to 5.25%, before the U.S. economy suffered the worst recession since the 1930s. We are not so lucky this time.

Greenspan’s rate hikes didn’t affect delinquency rates straight away. Credit stress was subdued until a year after Greenspan’s last hike. Only in the first quarter of 2007, delinquency rates began to move higher. The reason is as clear as the water surrounding the Bahamas: in the years preceding the Great Recession credit growth was mainly focused on the U.S. housing market.

Credit growth was mostly driven by mortgage lending. Mortgages were generously provided by banks, but increasingly to subprime borrowers (subprime referring to their poor credit). Yet these subprime borrowers didn’t pay higher interest rates on their mortgages the moment Alan Greenspan began hiking rates. But as soon as their (promotional) teaser rates resetted, they started “feeling the Alan.” Delinquency rates went through the roof and the U.S. economy into recession.

Teaser rates, the low initial interest rate a borrower pays for the first few years, were responsible for the lag between Greenspan’s rate hikes and the 2008 recession.

More Fragile

Today, the Federal Reserve is ignoring a very inconvenient truth: the global economy is much more fragile than the last time around. And we have no teaser rates in today’s subprime credit (unless we of course consider oil producers that hedged oil prices by buying futures as something akin to “teaser rates”).

This time around, we will certainly not need seventeen rate hikes or three years before pushing the economy into recession.

In fact, we now know what happened after Janet Yellen increased the Fed funds rate with a mere quarter-percentage point: the delinquency rate on commercial and industrial loans increased 50%. That is right. In a single quarter delinquency rates in the U.S. banking sector exploded from 1% to 1.5%. The cycle has turned.

This Is Why Nobody Is Paying Attention

Why is nobody paying attention to this seemingly undeniable shift in the credit cycle? Why does the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) not even mention it? Why are the alarm bells not ringing in both Fed board rooms and the financial press?

The only answer to these questions is that the Fed is committing a capital sin. The headline number, the delinquency rate on all loans, …read more

Source: Is A New Banking Crisis Imminent? Recent Rise In Delinquency Rates Is Shocking

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By Tyler Durden

New research out by the Pew Research Center shows an interesting development in the United States. Using Census Bureau information released with 2014 population estimates, Pew found that the US is becoming ever more diverse, at the local level as well as nationally.

In 2014, 364 counties, independent cities and other county-level equivalents did not have non-Hispanic white majorities, the most in modern history, and more than twice the level in 1980.

The increase in the number of counties that did not have a non-Hispanic white majority was due in large part to the growth of the Hispanic population.

From Pew Research

That year – the first decennial enumeration in which the nation’s Hispanic population was comprehensively counted – non-Hispanic whites were majorities in all but 171 out of 3,141 counties (5.4%), according to our analysis. The 1990 census was the first to break out non-Hispanic whites as a separate category; that year, they made up the majority in all but 186 counties, or 5.9% of the total. (The Census Bureau considers Hispanic to be an ethnicity rather than a race; accordingly, Hispanics can be of any race.)

Since then, the nation’s Hispanic population has more than doubled, from 22.4 million to 55.4 million, powering the increase in majority-minority counties. Last year, 94 counties had Hispanic majorities – just over twice the number of majority-Hispanic counties in 1990 (45), and one more than the number of counties last year with non-Hispanic black majorities

Overall, non-Hispanic whites are less than a majority in four states, and in a further indication of just how diverse the US is becoming, in none of those states does a single racial or ethnic group have a majority.

All in all, non-Hispanic whites are less than a majority in four states – California, Texas, New Mexico and Hawaii – as well as the District of Columbia. In fact, in none of those places does a single racial or ethnic group have a majority: California has almost equal shares of Hispanics (38.6%) and non-Hispanic whites (38.5%); non-Hispanic whites are the plurality in Texas (43.5%); Hispanics in New Mexico (47.7%); blacks in D.C. (47.4%); and Asians in Hawaii (36.4%).

* * *

This is an important development to pay attention to because as the US becomes more diverse, everything from the economy (consumer preferences, etc) to the political landscape can be significantly impacted… for instance, election advertising spend and wall-building jobs.

…read more

Source: This Is Where Whites In America Are A Minority

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Doug Bandow via NationalInterest.org,

Watching the Brexit campaign generated mixed feelings: it was a little like the man who saw his mother-in-law drive his new Mercedes off a cliff. In the United Kingdom, some people who hated free trade, immigration and market innovation challenged the officious, wannabe superstate headquartered in Brussels. Who to cheer for?

We should cheer for the Brexiteers, who deserve at least a couple of hurrahs. The European Union created a common market throughout the continent, an undoubted good, but since then has focused on becoming a meddling Leviathan like Washington, DC. For Britain, the virtues of remaining appeared to pale in comparison to the likely costs of continued subservience to Brussels. In a variety of imperfect ways, Brexit promoted liberty, community, democracy and the rule of law. In short, the good guys won.

Here are sixteen reasons why the United Kingdom was better off Brexiting:

1. Average folks took on the commanding heights of politics, business, journalism and academia and triumphed. Obviously, the “little guy” isn’t always right, but the fact he can win demonstrates that a system whose pathways remain open to those the Bible refer to as “the least of these.” The wealthiest, best-organized and most publicized factions don’t always win.

2. Told to choose between economic bounty and self-governance, a majority of Britons chose the latter. It’s a false choice in this case, but people recognized that the sum of human existence is not material. The problem is not just the decisions previously taken away from those elected to govern the UK; it’s also the decisions that would have been taken away in the future had “Remain” won.

3. Those governed decided that they should make fundamental decisions about who would rule over them. The Eurocrats, a gaggle of politicians, bureaucrats, journalists, academics, lobbyists and businessmen were determined to achieve their ends no matter what the European people thought. A constitution rejected? Use a treaty. A treaty rejected? Vote again. A busted monetary union? Force a political union. And never, ever consult the public. No longer, said the British.

4. The rule of law will be respected—or at least not flagrantly flouted. Those signing up as EU members did not realize that the EU would be a transfer union. At least some countries likely would not have ratified the Lisbon Treaty, expanding Brussels’ writ, had they realized that explicit strictures against bailouts would be ostentatiously ignored. No doubt the usual suspects believed they were doing the Lord’s work by violating legal guarantees. But today no one living under the EU has any assurance that laws made, rules issued and promises offered would be kept.

5. Routine incantations of the need for “more Europe” and importance of “European solidarity” no longer will be confused with arguments. Those in charge always want more—more money to distribute, publicity to satisfy, rules to enforce and power to wield. Their vision of “more Europe” is Europe giving them more. “European solidarity” means others caring for them after they have …read more

Source: 16 Reasons To Celebrate Brexit’s Win

    

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by John Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“Our carceral state banishes American citizens to a gray wasteland far beyond the promises and protections the government grants its other citizens… When the doors finally close and one finds oneself facing banishment to the carceral state—the years, the walls, the rules, the guards, the inmates…the incarcerated begins to adjust to the fact that he or she is, indeed, a prisoner. New social ties are cultivated. New rules must be understood.”

– Ta-Nehisi Coates, The Atlantic

In a carceral state – a.k.a. a prison state or a police state – there is no Fourth Amendment to protect you from the overreaches, abuses, searches and probing eyes of government overlords.

In a carceral state, there is no difference between the treatment meted out to a law-abiding citizen and a convicted felon: both are equally suspect and treated as criminals, without any of the special rights and privileges reserved for the governing elite.

In a carceral state, there are only two kinds of people: the prisoners and the prison guards.

With every new law enacted by federal and state legislatures, every new ruling handed down by government courts, and every new military weapon, invasive tactic and egregious protocol employed by government agents, “we the people”—the prisoners of the American police state—are being pushed that much further into a corner, our backs against the prison wall.

This concept of a carceral state in which we possess no rights except for that which the government grants on an as-needed basis is the only way I can begin to comprehend, let alone articulate, the irrational, surreal, topsy-turvy, through-the-looking-glass state of affairs that is being imposed upon us in America today.

As I point out in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People, we who pretend we are free are no different from those who spend their lives behind bars.

Indeed, we are experiencing much the same phenomenon that journalist Ta-Nehisi Coates ascribes to those who are banished to a “gray wasteland far beyond the promises and protections the government grants its other citizens” : a sickening feeling, a desire to sleep, hopelessness, shame, rage, disbelief, clinginess to the past and that which is familiar, and then eventually resignation and acceptance of our new “normal.”

All that we are experiencing—the sense of dread at what is coming down the pike, the desperation, the apathy about government corruption, the deeply divided partisanship, the carnivalesque political spectacles, the public displays of violence, the nostalgia for the past—are part of the dying refrain of an America that is fading fast.

No longer must the government obey the law.

Likewise, “we the people” are no longer shielded by the rule of law.

While the First Amendment—which gives us a voice—is being muzzled, the Fourth Amendment—which protects us from being bullied, badgered, beaten, broken and spied on by government agents—is being disemboweled.

For instance, in a recent 5-3 ruling in Utah v. Strieff, the U.S. Supreme Court opened the door for police to stop, arrest and search citizens without …read more

Source: "We The Prisoners": The Demise Of The Fourth Amendment

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,

Tell a person that it's a big beautiful world, full of fresh opportunities and a sense of freedom that is just not available by staying put and you will inevitably be treated to a litany of reasons why expanding your life into more than one country just isn't practical.

Let's consider some of those commonly stated reasons, and why they might be unjustified. While largely directed at Americans, these are also applicable to pretty much anyone from any country (for example, Britain… or Germany).

“America is the best country in the world. I'd be a fool to leave.”

That was absolutely true, not so very long ago. America certainly was the best – and it was unique. But it no longer exists, except as an ideal. The geography it occupied has been co-opted by the United States, which today is just another nation-state. And, most unfortunately, one that's become especially predatory toward its citizens.

“My parents and grandparents were born here; I have roots in this country.”

An understandable emotion; everyone has an atavistic affinity for his place of birth, including your most distant relatives born long, long ago, and far, far away. I suppose if Lucy, apparently the first more-or-less human we know of, had been able to speak, she might have pled roots if you'd asked her to leave her valley in East Africa. If you buy this argument, then it's clear your forefathers, who came from Europe, Asia, or Africa, were made of sterner stuff than you are.

“I'm not going to be unpatriotic.”

Patriotism is one of those things very few even question and even fewer examine closely. I'm a patriot, you're a nationalist, he's a jingoist. But let's put such a tendentious and emotion-laden subject aside. Today a true patriot – an effective patriot – would be accumulating capital elsewhere, to have assets he can repatriate and use for rebuilding when the time is right. And a real patriot understands that America is not a place; it's an idea. It deserves to be spread.

“I can't leave my aging mother behind.”

Not to sound callous, but your aging parent will soon leave you behind. Why not offer her the chance to come along, though? She might enjoy a good live-in maid in your own house (which I challenge you to get in the U.S.) more than a sterile, dismal, and overpriced old people's home, where she's likely to wind up.

“I might not be able to earn a living.”

Spoken like a person with little imagination and even less self-confidence. And likely little experience or knowledge of economics. Everyone, everywhere, has to produce at least as much as he consumes – that won't change whether you stay in your living room or go to Timbuktu. In point of fact, though, it tends to be easier to earn big money in a foreign country, because you will have knowledge, experience, skills, and connections the locals don't.

“I don't have enough capital to make a move.”

Well, that was one thing that kept serfs …read more

Source: Doug Casey Debunks The Common Excuses for "Staying" In One Country

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By Tyler Durden

Authored by Bernie Sanders, originally posted Op-Ed via The NY Times,

Surprise, surprise. Workers in Britain, many of whom have seen a decline in their standard of living while the very rich in their country have become much richer, have turned their backs on the European Union and a globalized economy that is failing them and their children.

And it’s not just the British who are suffering. That increasingly globalized economy, established and maintained by the world’s economic elite, is failing people everywhere. Incredibly, the wealthiest 62 people on this planet own as much wealth as the bottom half of the world’s population — around 3.6 billion people. The top 1 percent now owns more wealth than the whole of the bottom 99 percent. The very, very rich enjoy unimaginable luxury while billions of people endure abject poverty, unemployment, and inadequate health care, education, housing and drinking water.

Could this rejection of the current form of the global economy happen in the United States? You bet it could.

During my campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, I’ve visited 46 states. What I saw and heard on too many occasions were painful realities that the political and media establishment fail even to recognize.

In the last 15 years, nearly 60,000 factories in this country have closed, and more than 4.8 million well-paid manufacturing jobs have disappeared. Much of this is related to disastrous trade agreements that encourage corporations to move to low-wage countries.

Despite major increases in productivity, the median male worker in America today is making $726 dollars less than he did in 1973, while the median female worker is making $1,154 less than she did in 2007, after adjusting for inflation.

Nearly 47 million Americans live in poverty. An estimated 28 million have no health insurance, while many others are underinsured. Millions of people are struggling with outrageous levels of student debt. For perhaps the first time in modern history, our younger generation will probably have a lower standard of living than their parents. Frighteningly, millions of poorly educated Americans will have a shorter life span than the previous generation as they succumb to despair, drugs and alcohol.

Meanwhile, in our country the top one-tenth of 1 percent now owns almost as much wealth as the bottom 90 percent. Fifty-eight percent of all new income is going to the top 1 percent. Wall Street and billionaires, through their “super PACs,” are able to buy elections.

On my campaign, I’ve talked to workers unable to make it on $8 or $9 an hour; retirees struggling to purchase the medicine they need on $9,000 a year of Social Security; young people unable to afford college. I also visited the American citizens of Puerto Rico, where some 58 percent of the children live in poverty and only a little more than 40 percent of the adult population has a job or is seeking one.

Let’s be clear. The global economy is not working for the majority of people in our country and the …read more

Source: Bernie Sanders: The World Is Rejecting Globalization

    

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