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By Tyler Durden

Well that escalated quickly…All-time highs within reach… everything is awesome…wait what…

Quite a week:

• Gold +5.25% in last 2 weeks – best run in 4 months
• Silver +5.65% this week – best week since May 2015
• Copper -4% this week to lowest weekly close since January
• Sterling -2.5% in last 2 weeks – worst drop in 3 months
• US Dollar Index +0.6% – up 7 of last 9 weeks
• 30Y Yields -21bps in last 8 days – best rally in 4 months
• 2Y Yields -17bps in last 7 days – biggest plunge since Jan 2015
• Nasdaq -1.51% today – worst day since Feb 8th
• VIX +3vols in last 2 days – biggest spike since Feb 9th – highest close in 3 months…

Bonds were the big news this week – as equities tried to ignore the message from the massive institutionalized buying of fixed income to record low yields…The yield on the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index dropped to a record 0.601 percent Thursday.

In April 2015, with 10Y German bond yields at 5bps, Bill Gross and Jeff Gundlach called Bunds the “short of a lifetime.” Just over a year later – having spiked to over 100bps – 10Y bund yields have crashed since The Fed hiked rates in December and The ECB escalated its bond-buying. Today marked a dramatic moment as Germany almost joined Switzerland (-50bps) and Japan (-17bps) with a 10Y bond yield below zero… as Bunds traded to 0.9bps.

And Treasury yields tumbled…and the curve flattened

It appears renewed turmoil in Chinese currency markets started rippling through markets…as Yuan hits 4month lows…

But Gold and bonds are leading the way post-payrolls, with S&P and WTI lagging…

On the week, Nasdaq was the biggest loser…

They did try to ramp it in the last 30 – managing to get close to VWAP (but missing out on 2,100 and unch on the week)…

And stocks finally caught on to the weak growth, event risk concerns priced into bonds…gold.. and FX carry… Who could have seen this coming?

Financials appear to be waking up to the reality of a collapsing yield curve…

Today's weakness started when Europe opened, as it seems “sell the news.. AND EVERY BANK” was the meme, but really accelerated when the Brexit poll hit this afternoon…

We've been warning about VIX decoupling and it snapped above 17 today…as S&P lost 2100…

VIX decoupled…

pic.twitter.com/ckZyQIPOaK

— Stalingrad & Poorski (@Stalingrad_Poor) June 10, 2016

FX markets went turbo today following the Brexit poll with USDJPY snapping lower (Yen strength) and …read more

Source: Post-Payrolls Panic-Buying Evaporates As "Bad News Is Bad News" After All

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Gawker Media has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, a dramatic move motivated by the company’s expensive legal fight with Hulk Hogan.

…read more

Source: Gawker files for bankruptcy

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By Tyler Durden

“Everyone has a plan until they are punched in the face.” This famous Mike Tyson quote spells out the outlook for investors in the years ahead according to SocGen's Albert Edwards, who warns that investors will not only be punched in the face, they will also get knocked to the floor and kicked repeatedly in the ribs. In the event it is best to roll up into a ball. This won?t prevent all injury, but it will help avoid the most damaging blows. The same applies to investors in the Ice Age.

On 4 June 2009 Edwards wrote:

“The big news this week is that the Coppock Indicator has turned upwards. This is one of the most reliable technical indicators suggesting we are in a new long-term bull market. The Conference Board leading indicator has also just turned up decisively. Is an investor who remains underweight equities, expecting decisive new lows brave, or plain stupid?”

The answer is that it was I who was incredibly stupid. I?m used to looking stupid most of time as within this secular bear market, cyclical rallies last many years longer than each short-lived cyclical bear phase. But each gut-wrenching downturn takes equity indices to new lower lows. That moment is imminent.

As SocGen's Albert Edwards explains… We remain at the bearish extreme of the market.

It is not a pleasant place. It is cold, dark and damp. People either don?t speak to you or send you abusive e-mails. Members of your own family pretend not to know you. Actually, I made that last bit up. Although when I was going through my hippy phase in the second half of the 1970s (a decade too late), my mother did actually cross the street and walk past pretending she didn?t know me. Maybe that childhood experience of parental rejection made me the thick-skinned bear I am today?

As promised we have updated the Pring Turner chart…

It shows that the three previous US equity valuation bear markets (the top line being the real S&P) take a minimum of four recessions to play themselves out ? we have only suffered two since the peak of the bubble in 2000. The secular bear market only ends when cyclically-adjusted valuation measures reach rock bottom (such as the Shiller PE on the bottom line). Each successive recession (red part of real S&P ? top line) sees huge downturns, usually to new lower lows of both prices and valuations. That is why we reiterated our view early this year that in the coming recession the S&P will bottom at 550, a 75% decline from current levels.

The charts below are my favourite Ice Age charts, which I haven?t focused on for a long time.

The first shows the US equity earnings yield and the 10y bond yield back to 1950 and it demonstrates how successful investing depends on knowing what secular phase the market is in. The long bull market of 1982-2000, when both bond yields and equity yields fell together, was a mirror image of the 1965-1982 period …read more

Source: "It’s Time To Panic" – Albert Edwards Warns Recession Is Imminent

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By Tyler Durden

Following last week’sunexpected rise in US oil rigs – and the biggest increase in US Crude production since the first week of January – the lagged price of oil suggested that rig counts would continue to rise this week, and it did – up 3 to 328. Oil prices had dropped from over $51.50 to almost $49 – erasing the post-payrolls gains- ahead of the rig count data and were relatively unimpressed by the print.

Production rose last week for the first time in 18 weeks and by the most since Jan 1st:

As rig counts increased by the most since December and for the 2nd week in a row… leaving oil unchanged since payrolls…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Oil Gives Up Post-Payrolls Gains As Rig Count Rises For 2nd Straight Week

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Source: CLuB BiLDeRBeRG…

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By Tyler Durden

University of Michigan consumer confidence faded modestly in its preliminary June print, despite the exuberance in US equity markets.

As UMich details,

Consumers were a bit less optimistic in early June due to increased concerns about future economic prospects. The recent data magnified the growing gap between the most favorable assessments of Current Economic Conditions since July 2005, and renewed downward drift of the Expectations Index, which fell by a rather modest 8.6% from the January 2015 peak.

The strength recorded in early June was in personal finances, and the weaknesses were in expectations for continued growth in the national economy. Consumers rated their current financial situation at the best levels since the 2007 cyclical peak largely due to wage gains. Prospects for gains in inflation-adjusted incomes in the year ahead were also the most favorable since the 2007 peak, enabled by record low inflation expectations. On the negative side of the ledger, consumers do not think the economy is as strong as it was last year nor do they anticipate the economy will enjoy the same financial health in the year ahead as they anticipated a year ago.

A sustained reduction in the pace of job creation could prompt consumers to hold down spending to increase their precautionary savings. Overall, the data still indicate that real consumer expenditures can be expected to rise by 2.5% in 2016 and 2.7% in 2017.

But expectations for future inflation collapsed to record lows…

Is this the chart of collapsing Fed credibility?

…read more

Source: UMich Consumer Inflation Expectations Plunge To Record Low

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By Tyler Durden

German, Japanese, and British bond yields are plumbing historic depths as low growth outlooks combined with event risk concerns (Brexit, elections, etc.) have sent investors scurrying for safe-havens (away from US Biotechs).

At 2.0bps, 10Y Bunds are inching ever closer to the Maginot Line of NIRP which JGBs have already crossed, and all of this global compression is dragging US Treasury yields to their lowest levels since February's flash-crash… and it appears stocks are catching down to that reality.

As Bloomberg reports, the rush into government bonds during 2016 shows no sign of reversing as a weakening global economic outlook fuels demand for perceived havens.

Bonds are off to their best start to a year since at least 1997, according to a broad global gauge of investment-grade debt that has gained 4.6 percent since the end of December, based on Bank of America Corp. data. They rallied most recently after the weakest U.S. payrolls data in almost six years was reported June 3, damping expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the next few months.

At the same time, polls indicate Britain’s vote on remaining or exiting the European Union is too close to call. Billionaire investor George Soros was said to be concerned large market shifts may be at hand.

“The environment is fundamentally supportive of these low yields, and there is nothing in sight, at least in the short term, that could trigger a trend reversal,” said Marius Daheim, a senior rates strategist at SEB AB in Frankfurt. “The labor market report was one thing which has driven the Treasury market and has supported other markets. If you look in the euro zone, you have Brexit risks that have risen recently, and that is also creating safe-haven flows.”

10Y Japanese Government bonds plunged to record lows at -15bps!

With Gilts down 9 days in a row…

The World Bank this week cut its outlook for global growth as business spending sags in advanced economies including the U.S., while commodity exporters in emerging markets struggle to adjust to low prices.

The yield on the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index dropped to a record 0.601 percent Thursday.

And stocks are waking up to that reality…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Global Bonds Yields Plunge To Record As Treasuries Test Flash-Crash Lows

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By Tyler Durden

The ongoing criminal probe surrounding Hillary’s email server has been marked by opacity and lack of virtually any disclosure, not to mention a major turf war between the FBI and the DOJ, which is why many were surprised when overnight the WSJ revealed that at the center of the probe over Hillary’s handling of classified information are a series of emails between American diplomats in Islamabad and their superiors in Washington about whether to oppose specific drone strikes in Pakistan.

As the WSJ writes, the 2011 and 2012 emails were sent via the “low side’’—government slang for a computer system for unclassified matters—as part of a secret arrangement that gave the State Department more of a voice in whether a Central Intelligence Agency drone strike went ahead, “according to congressional and law-enforcement officials briefed on the Federal Bureau of Investigation probe.” Note the last and recall that two months ago we noted that according to Chuck Grassley, an FBI “source” may leak what the FBI has uncovered so far, to wit:

“Is there going to be political interference? If there’s enough evidence to prosecute, will there be political interference?” Grassley wondered aloud on Friday. “And if there’s political interference, then I assume that somebody in the FBI is going to leak these reports and it’s either going to have an effect politically or it’s going to lead to prosecution if there’s enough evidence.”

It appears that this is precisely what may have happened, and the “source” used the WSJ as the distribution platform. And now that we (don’t) know the “who”, here is the “what.”

The CIA drone campaign in Pakistan, though widely reported in Pakistan, is treated as secret by the U.S. government. Under strict U.S. classification rules, U.S. officials have been barred from discussing strikes publicly and even privately outside of secure communications systems. The State Department said in January that 22 emails on Clinton’s personal server at her home have been judged to contain top-secret information and aren’t being publicly released. Many of them dealt with whether diplomats concurred or not with the CIA drone strikes, congressional and law-enforcement officials said.

As the WSJ adds, some of the [drone-related] emails were then forwarded by Clinton’s aides to her personal email account, which routed them to a server she kept at her home in suburban New York when she was secretary of state, the officials said. Investigators have raised concerns that Clinton’s personal server was less secure than State Department systems.

The vaguely worded messages didn’t mention the “CIA,” “drones” or details about the militant targets, officials said. The still-secret emails are a key part of the FBI investigation that has long dogged Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, these officials said.

They were written within the often-narrow time frame in which State Department officials had to decide whether or not to object to drone strikes before the CIA pulled the trigger, the officials said.

This is an issue, and potentially a criminal one, because “law-enforcement and intelligence officials said State …read more

Source: The FBI Leaks Begin: Emails At Center Of Hillary Criminal Probe Revealed

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Nearly one-third of American adults are barely making it, according to a new Federal Reserve study. …read more

Source: 76m Americans are struggling financially or just getting by

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