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Americans Have Never Been Fatter – And It’s Getting Worse

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By Tyler Durden

Two recent reports from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) show that efforts to encourage Americans to lose weight aren't working.

In one study of more than 5,400 adults, the results show that 33% of US adults are overweight, and 38% of US adults are obese. Breaking the data down a bit further, the report writes that “the age-adjusted prevalence of obesity in 2013-2014 was 35% among men, and 40.4% among women.” Additionally, more than 5% of men and nearly 10% of women came in morbidly obese.

For adults, people are considered overweight when their body mass index reaches 25, obese when it hits 30, and morbidly obese when it reaches 40.

As an example, someone who is 5-foot-5 and weighs 149 pounds has a body mass index of 24, which is considered a healthy weight according to NBC News. If a pound is added, and that same person has a BMI of 25, the person is considered overweight. At 180 pounds that individual would have a BMI of 30 and would be considered obese.

In a second study done on children and teens, the results showed that 17% are obese and 5.8% were extremely obese. Obesity in kids is measured a little bit differently, it's how heavy they are compared to other kids the same age and height – those weighing more than 95% of kids the same age are considered obese.

People who are obese have higher rates of heart disease, diabetes, some cancers, arthritis, and Alzheimer's disease, however despite a lot of effort and millions of dollars spent, there is not much evidence the epidemic is diminishing.

From NBC News

It's not clear why obesity continues to worsen, despite many studies trying to put a finger on it.

“Numerous foundations, industries, professional societies, and governmental agencies have provided hundreds of millions of dollars in funding to support basic science research in obesity, clinical trials and observational studies, development of new drugs and devices, and hospital and community programs to help stem the tide of the obesity epidemic,” the journal's editors, Dr. Jody Zylke and Dr. Howard Bauchner, wrote in a commentary.

The obesity epidemic in the United States is now 3 decades old, and huge investments have been made in research, clinical care, and development of various programs to counteract obesity. However, few data suggest the epidemic is diminishing,” they added.

“Perhaps it is time for an entirely different approach, one that emphasizes collaboration with the food and restaurant industries that are in part responsible for putting food on dinner tables.”

Not only is it not diminishing, the Trust for America's Health projects that 44% of Americans will be obese by 2030, while the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention projects 42% of adults will be.

From a financial perspective, a Gallup and Healthways study shows that 34% of obese adults were more likely to suffer financially than non-obese adults.

* * *

It appears as though Americans could use some time away from smart phones and video games, and redirect their efforts to …read more

Source: Americans Have Never Been Fatter – And It’s Getting Worse

    

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Currency Wars Re-Escalate As Bank Of Korea Shocks Market With Rate Cut

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By Tyler Durden

With the 655th rate-cut globally since Lehman, the Bank of Korea stunned the market tonight and cut rates 25bps to 1.25% (a record low). Only 1 of 18 economists expected a rate cut as it appears record highs in US equities signal nothing about the underlying turmoil in the world’s economy. After 6 straight days stronger (against the USD), the Won is sliding back above 1160 as it seems the currency wars are reigniting in AsiaPac…

The 25bps cut, the first reduction since June 2015, shocked the market as only one BOK board member said at the May decision (according to the minutes) that there was a need to cut rates in near term.. which makes us wonder just what changd so quickly.

…read more

Source: Currency Wars Re-Escalate As Bank Of Korea Shocks Market With Rate Cut

    

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BLS Says Jobs Openings Up; Actually, Openings Falling Fast!

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Mish Shedlock of MishTalk

The BLS JOLTS (Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover) report came out today.

The BLS claims jobs openings are up. Based on an alternate reports, I suggest opening are not only down, but falling steeply.

The implications are huge, so let’s dive into the discrepancies.

BLS: Job Openings vs. Hires

That’s how the BLS sees things. Before we dive into the alternate view, let’s take a peek at mainstream media analysis.

Mainstream JOLTS Comments

Bloomberg Econoday spins it this way:

Job openings are up but hiring isn’t, in what are mixed but still favorable results from the April JOLTS report. Job openings rose to 5.788 million from a downward revised 5.670 million in March. The job openings rate also rose, up 1 tenth to 3.9 percent. The hiring rate, in contrast, fell a sharp 2 tenths to 3.5 percent in what perhaps confirms anecdotal reports that employers are having a hard time finding qualified applicants for skilled positions. In a separate indication that points to weakness in worker confidence, the quits rate fell 1 tenth to 2.0 percent suggesting that workers are not shopping their skills around to other employers. Back on the positive side, the layoff rate fell 1 tenth to a low 1.1 percent. This report is mixed and embodies what are increasingly mixed signals across employment indicators in general.

Supposedly hiring is down because employers cannot find qualified workers.

How about the fact that part-time employment for economic reasons soared by 468,000? For more grim details, please see Fed Hiking Not: Payroll Jobs +38K, Employed +26K, Labor Force -458K, Revisions -59K.

Beat the Street

CNBC reported 5.8 Million Job Openings in April vs 5.7 Million Expected.

Hooray!

Job Openings – Real Time Macroeconomics

Jon Hartley, Researcher and Policy Analyst for Real Time Macroeconomics see things this way (anecdotes Mish).

Clearly someone is wrong. Who is it?

Red Flag on the US Economy

Please consider the Financial Sense report Real Time Online Jobs Data Continues to Raise a Red Flag on the US Economy.

Following the big jobs miss last Friday, we recently showed that this trend is likely to continue without a turnaround in leading employment indicators.

Another important data point that we’ve been keeping our eye on is online jobs listings, which, as we noted last month, were beginning to plunge and rollover in a manner similar to the last US recession

Our contact is Jon Hartley at Real Time Macroeconomics who previously worked at the Federal Reserve, Dallas Cowboys, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management as a quantitative analyst, economic researcher, and data scientist of sorts.

When we spoke to him a couple months ago on our podcast about his company and using real-time online data for tracking changes in the economy, he said there were some signs of leveling off but no clear red flags just yet.

Since that time, however, the data they track has moved from leveling off to outright decline and Jon just recently emailed us to say he is now “leaning toward forecasting …read more

Source: BLS Says Jobs Openings Up; Actually, Openings Falling Fast!

    

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The Alternative Viewpoint: The 5 Scenarios Of Donald Trump

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By Tyler Durden

oligarchy

Submitted by Mark Jeftovic via RebootingCapitalism.com,

It truly boggles the mind that we are living in a world where we are facing an election for the world’s most important spokesmodel and the candidates will be Donald Trump (narcissistic, serial bankrupt) and Hillary Clinton (known racketeer and influence peddler).

The rise of Trump has captivated all (contrast with the rise of Hillary which seemed a forgone conclusion from the word go, even when reality threatened to intervene….), it seems so freakish.

I’m not alone however, in suspecting that The Donald, is not really the “anti-establishment” loose-canon candidate he is being made out to be.

Trump could very well be playing a well defined role within the usual backdrop of manipulation of the masses and ensuring that any choice Americans face in November is purely illusory and ceremonial.

Let’s look at 5 possible scenarios that could explain the phenom.

#1: Trump is there to clear the path for Hillary Clinton

This was the first theory posited by Catherine Austin Fitts over at Solari Report: that Trump was there to neutralize the other Republican challengers to pave the way for Hillary Clinton to win the election.

It is still possible that this is what is happening, given that Trump is now the Republican nominee he is being held out by most mainstream media as some kind of “Unthinkable Scenario”. It now hinges on the idea that the public finds the spectre of a Trump presidency something to be avoided at all costs, thus putting the voters behind whoever isn’t Trump. Which, given the mainstream media’s recent complicity in hijacking the Dems nomination process, will be Hillary.

Seeing that Bill Clinton had at least one back channel conversation with Trump prior to his entering the race, this scenario looks plausible:

“The talk with Clinton — the spouse of the Democratic presidential front-runner and one of his party’s preeminent political strategists — came just weeks before Trump jumped into the GOP race and surged to the front of the crowded Republican field.”

The Clintons at the Donald’s wedding in Palm Beach, 2005. They look cosy, don’t they?

#2: The purpose of Trump was to make Jeb Bush look electable

The entire world knows that the US needed another Bush presidency like it needs a third world war or a flu pandemic, yet Mr. Global wanted to make sure they (as usual) had “their kind of peeps” on either side of the equation. Hillary on the Dems side, check.

On the Republican side it wasn’t so clear cut. The batch of contenders put forward by the GOP this cycle came across as so utterly sociopathic and balls-out nuts it didn’t even look like they were trying to appear credible. Under this scenario Trump was there to make sure none of those whack jobs (Cruz, Carson, Fiorina) got anywhere close by simply out-cray-cray-ing them all, and he would thereby make the blandest, least charismatic and most heavily tainted with well deserved crappy baggage (Bush) look appealing to voters.

This scenario breaks out into two …read more

Source: The Alternative Viewpoint: The 5 Scenarios Of Donald Trump

    

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Deutsche Bank’s Shocking ECB Rant: Warns Of Social Unrest And Another Great Depression

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By Tyler Durden

In early February, in a post titled “A Wounded Deutsche Bank Lashes Out At Central Bankers: Stop Easing, You Are Crushing Us“, we showed just how vast the feud between Europe’s biggest – and ever more troubled commercial bank – and the ECB had become. As DB’s Parag Thatte lamented then, “ECB rhetoric suggests additional easing measures forthcoming in March. While a fundamental tenet of these measures, in particular negative rates, has been to push investors out the risk spectrum, we remind that arguably the impact has been exactly the opposite.” And while the DB analyst has been correct, and now NIRP is widely accepted as a major mistake, the ECB proceeded to not only ease even more just one month after this first DB lament, but in what may have been a direct affront to DB, launched the monetization of corporate bonds, something which as we documented earlier today has now led to the complete disconnect between bonds and underlying fundamentals.

It was also led to daily record low yields for government bonds around the globe.

Last but not least, it has pushed the stock price of Deutsche Bank to levels not seen since the financial crisis as DB suddenly finds itself unable to make money in an NIRP environment.

Which brings us to today, when overnight DB’s chief economist David Folkerts-Landau released a scathing report titled “The ECB must change“, one which blows DB’s February lament out of the water, and in which DB accuses the ECB of putting not only its future at risk, but the future of the entire Eurozone, with its destructive policies.

A quick read of the executive summary of this epic rant reveals just how shockingly bad relations between Germany’s biggest bank and the former Goldman partner have now become.

Over the past century central banks have become the guardians of our economic and financial security. The Bundesbank and Federal Reserve are respected for achieving monetary stability, often in the face of political opposition. But central bankers can also lose the plot, usually by following the economic dogma of the day. When they do, their mistakes can be catastrophic.

Today the behaviour of the European Central Bank suggests that it too has gone awry. After seven years of ever-looser monetary policy there is increasing evidence that following the current dogma, broad-based quantitative easing and negative interest rates, risks the long-term stability of the eurozone.

Already it is clear that lower and lower interest rates and ever larger purchases are confronting the law of decreasing returns. What is more, the ECB has lost credibility within markets and more worryingly among the public.

But the ECB’s response is to push policy to further extremes. This causes mis-allocations in the real economy that become increasingly hard to reverse without even greater pain. Savers lose, while stock and apartment owners rejoice.

Worse, by appointing itself the eurozone’s “whatever it takes” saviour of last resort, the ECB has allowed politicians to sit on their …read more

Source: Deutsche Bank’s Shocking ECB Rant: Warns Of Social Unrest And Another Great Depression

    

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Trump Gives Up On $1 Billion Fund Goal After Mark Cuban Says He Will "Grovel For Money"

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By Tyler Durden

One month ago, Donald Trump raised eyebrows and in some cases, tempers, when the “anti-establishment” candidate announced that he had picked Goldman Sachs veteran, and former George Soros trader, Steven Mnuchin, as his finance chairman, who was supposed to help the New York mogul raise as much as $1 billion to fund his presidential campaign. However, it appears Mnuchin’s fundraising services will not be as needed as initially thought. In an interview with Bloomberg, Donald Trump distanced himself from his own fundraising estimate of $1 billion, refusing to commit to collecting even half that amount, and saying his campaign didn’t need much money to win the White House.

Instead Trump, who has held just two major fundraising events since agreeing three weeks ago to help the party raise cash, said he would rely instead more on his own star power as a former reality-TV personality to earn free media, and has no specific goals for how much money his campaign needs.

“There’s no reason to raise that,” Trump said about raising $1 billion. “I just don’t think I need nearly as much money as other people need because I get so much publicity. I get so many invitations to be on television. I get so many interviews, if I want them.”

In an extended interview inside his Trump Tower office on Wednesday—his first after the final day of Republican nomination contests—Trump also said he has narrowed his running-mate search to four or five politicians from within the party’s establishment, including several former campaign rivals.

Trump also spoke at length about his controversial real-estate program, Trump University, despite a lengthy statement a day earlier in which he said he did “not intend to comment on this matter any further.” He continued to insist that he’s been treated unfairly in the case, and pointed to positive reviews of the school. “Another said, ‘I went to Harvard and this was better,'” Trump said. He declined say whether he agreed or disagreed with that assessment, adding, “The experience was very good for a lot of people.”

However in an indication that Trump is trying to become more moderate, unlike previous interviews on the subject, he didn’t turn to personal attacks against federal judge Gonzalo Curiel.

“It’s not a big case and they don’t care about it,” Trump said about voters. “Nobody cares. We want to get on to where the economy is going and everything else.”

Some other details from the interview:

In contrast to the loud and outrageous performance Trump delivers at his public rallies, he was engaging and even made at attempt at humility when a reporter suggested he had out-negotiated House Speaker Paul Ryan to win the Wisconsin Republican’s endorsement. “I didn’t out-negotiate him,” Trump said. “He is a very good guy. I think Paul and I will deal on certain issues.

“But Trump’s brashness was on display, too, as he responded to a Bloomberg Politics article on Monday about a chaotic private phone call in which he ordered about three dozen of his …read more

Source: Trump Gives Up On $1 Billion Fund Goal After Mark Cuban Says He Will "Grovel For Money"

    

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Dow Closes Above 18K Despite Buying In Bonds, Gold, And VIX

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By Tyler Durden

Before we start, there is this…

And the market knows how crap things are as it prices out any rate hikes…

So the incessant bid for stocks (at record valuations) is…

Ok having got that off our chest, we note that VIX was not playing along with the equity meltup for the 2nd day in a row…

But S&P pushed to fresh 11-month highs…

Less than 1% from all-time record highs…

Small Caps outperformed today as stocks bounced out of the European Close…

Nasdaq remains red post-payrolls with The Dow outperforming..

Today was all about Dow 18k once again!

Post-payrolls, Oil and Gold lead and bonds are beating stocks…

Bonds ain't buying it…

FX Carry is not buying it…

Traders are aggressively protecting their gains…

Treasury yields tumbled once more – helped by a strong 10Y auction… (2s30s flattened 3bps today)

With 10Y under 1.70% once again…

And remember, net aggregate positioning is incredibly short bonds… Just as The Fed told them to be…

The US Dollar Index fell for the 5th day of the last 6 to one-month lows…

While CNBC crowed about oil prices surging it was Gold and silver that outperformed today…

With WTI pushing to 11-month highs (according to Bloomberg's continuous contract data)… on the biggest production increase in six months

As Gold and Silver surge near one-month highs…

Charts: Bloomberg

…read more

Source: Dow Closes Above 18K Despite Buying In Bonds, Gold, And VIX

    

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The Janet Yellen Fed: Too cautious?

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for latest details.

…read more

Source: The Janet Yellen Fed: Too cautious?

    

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"The Whole Shebang Is Broke" – The Only Thing That’s Growing Is Debt

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By Tyler Durden

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

Two months ago, there was a referendum in Holland about an association agreement between the EU and Ukraine. A relatively new Dutch law states that with an X amount of signatures a referendum can be ‘forced’ by anyone. Before, during and -especially- after the vote, its importance was -and is actively being- pooh-poohed by both the Dutch government and the EU. That in itself paints the issue better than anything else. Both the call and the subsequent support for the referendum stem from resistance against exactly that attitude.

The Dutch voted No to the EU/Ukraine agreement. It was with a turnout not much above the validity threshold, but a large majority of those who did vote agreed they want no part of the deal. This puts Dutch PM Rutte in an awkward position, he can’t be seen ignoring the population. Well, at least not openly. The EU can’t validate the agreement, and with Holland still holding the chair of the Union until July 1, a meeting on the topic has been pushed forward until the last weekend of June. With Rutte still in charge, but only just, and with the June 23 UK Brexit vote decided.

Brussels is frantically looking for a way to push through the agreement despite the Dutch vote, and likely some sort of bland compromise will be presented, which Rutte’s spin doctors will put into words that he can -with a straight face- claim honor the vote while at the same time executing what that same vote specifically spoke out against.

The EU will claim that since 27 other nations did ‘ratify’ the agreement, the 67% of the 32% of Dutch voters who bothered to show up should not be able to block it. As they conveniently fail to mention that nobody in the other 27 countries had a chance to vote on the issue. Just imagine a Brexit-like vote in all 28 EU nations on June 23. Brussels knows very well what that would mean. There’s nothing it finds scarier than people having an active say in their lives.

All this is a mere introduction for what is a ‘western world wide’ trend that hardly anybody is able to interpret correctly. It what seems to many to be a sudden development, votes like the Dutch one are ‘events’ where people vote down incumbents and elites. But these are not political occurrences, or at least politics doesn’t explain them.

In the US, there’s Trump and Bernie Sanders. In Britain, the Brexit referendum shows a people that are inclined not to vote FOR something, but AGAINST current political powers. In Italy, a Five-Star candidate is set to become mayor of Rome, something two Podemos affiliated -former- activists have already achieved in Barcelona and Madrid.

All across Europe, ‘traditional’ parties are at record lows in the polls. As is evident when it comes to Brexit, but what when you look closer is a common theme, anything incumbents say can and will …read more

Source: "The Whole Shebang Is Broke" – The Only Thing That’s Growing Is Debt

    

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Blistering 10-Year Auction Stop Through Thanks To Record Foreign Central Bank Demand

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By Tyler Durden

Heading into last month’s 10 Year auction, there was a surprising development: the 10Y paper was trading super special in repo as a result of pervasive shortages. This time, however, this did not happen and in fact after trading tight in repo, earlier today, 10Y actually had a positive sign suggesting perhaps some weakness going into today’s auction.

However, all fears were laid to rest moments ago when the Treasury announced the results of today’s 10Y reopening: printing at a high yield of 1.702%, this not only stopped through the 1.708% when issued, but was the lowest yield for a 10 Year auction since December 2012. Furthermore, the Bid to Cover, rebounded from last month’s 2.68 and printed at 2.70, above the six month average of 2.65.

But once again the biggest action was in the internals, where Indirects Took down a whopping 73.6%, higher than last month’s 73.5% and the highest on record. Directs were left with 7.2%, the lowest since last August, while Dealers ended up with only 19.2% of the issue.

We can conclude that the insatiable foreign appetite for US paper, especially at auction, continues, and will continue to do so as a result of rate differentials between trillions in NIRPing foreign bonds and US paper.

Finally, the bond market was quite happy with the result, and yields have dropped to new LODs after the announcement.

Judging by the action in both stocks and bonds, it would appear that the market is positioned not for rate hikes here but for more QE.

…read more

Source: Blistering 10-Year Auction Stop Through Thanks To Record Foreign Central Bank Demand

    

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