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By Tyler Durden

“smooth sailing”, right?

Something is going on beneath the covers…

Last week saw the biggest addition of shorts across the Treasury Bond Complex in over 3 years (with record ultra shorts)…

And CSFB's “Fear Barometer” just hit an all-time high…

As CS' Mandy Xu notes, typically, an increase in the CSFB is caused by a combination of higher put demand and lower call demand. Interestingly, this time, the entire move was driven by the call-side. The derivatives market is assigning less than 1% probability the market will rise by 10% in the next three months vs. 17% probability it will fall by 10%.

* * *

And so while stocks tried (twice) to ramp in the face of faux-ness, they couldn't… Despite a well placed Italian headline into the close…

• *ITALY FIN. INSTITUTIONS, CDP AGREE TO SET UP FUND FOR BANKS

Just as we predicted…

Time for another “Italian bank bailout” headline

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 11, 2016

Which totally failed.. as stocks dumped into the red!

Who could have seen that coming? An EU banking bailout rumor headline-driven rally and USDJPY ramp crushed by crude's collapse on Russia “no freeze” headlines…

Post-Payrolls, stocks are red but crude is soaring with gold and bonds also bid…

But again all that mattered was 2043.94… (YTD unch) – VIX tagged 16.00 and was quickly dropped to get S&P back over 2043.94…

Goldman was bid on a $5.1bn settlement… (imagine if it had been $51 billion?)

Stocks are beginning to wake up to the credit and bond decoupling…

Treasury yields ended the day practically unchanged – swinging from bid to offered in the EU session and rallying (lower yields) during the US session…

The USD Index ended modestly lower on the day but rallied back during the US session (after the EU close) after some shenanigans around the Silver fix time…

And finally, Commodities all ended positively (even copper just) but it was silver that stood out…

As the precious metal inched back towards the $16 level…

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: With Alcoa kicking off earning season, we suspect this won't end well…

…read more

Source: Silver Soars, Stocks Slump As Equity "Fear" Hits All-Time Record High

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A new petition asks Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos to take down Trump’s clothing line.

…read more

Source: Amazon customers want Trump products pulled from site

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London’s famed Savile Row has just welcomed its very first female ‘master tailor’ to set up shop on the street, ending 200 years of a male monopoly.

…read more

Source: Savile Row just welcomed its first female master tailor

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A new petition asks Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos to take down Trump’s clothing line.

…read more

Source: Amazon customers tell Jeff Bezos to ‘dump Trump’

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Despite some customer backlash, Starbucks still plans to rollout Starbucks Rewards on Tuesday.

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Source: New Starbucks rewards program starts tomorrow

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A report finds that black drivers in California are more likely to have their licenses suspended for failure to appear in court or pay a ticket than whites. Black drivers are also more likely to be arrested for driving with a suspended license than whites.

…read more

Source: The steep cost of driving while black in California

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By Tyler Durden

This morning's 160 point spike in Dow Futures – out of nowhere – was predicated on

Oh and Deutsche Bank hardly blinked…

Still think this is sustainable…

…read more

Source: Putting Today’s "European Banks Are Fixed" Bounce In Context

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By Tyler Durden

Over the past year, the US State Department had repeatedly objected to the proposed Russian delivery of S-300 missile defense systems to Iran. One year ago, the issue first came up when as CNN reported then John Kerry raised objections with Moscow over a plan to sell advanced missile defense systems to Iran. The White House said Kerry made the US opposition clear in a phone call to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

It wasn’t just Kerry: the Pentagon also expressed concern about the move, saying it was “unhelpful.” At the time, Pentagon spokesman Colonel Steve Warren told reporters that “our opposition to these sales is long and public. We believe it’s unhelpful. We are raising that through the appropriate diplomatic channels.”

Israel also chimed in and “expressed alarm” over Putin’s announcement that he was lifting the block on the transfer of the controversial weapons system to Tehran, against which both the US and Israel have lobbied hard. “There is concern that the S-300 would seriously complicate any attempt at military intervention against Iranian nuclear facilities” CNN reported.

A senior Israeli official told Haaretz on Monday night that the Kremlin briefed Israel on its decision a short while before announcing the move. The official said Israel is also worried components of the air-defense system will be transferred to Syria and Hezbollah, seriously hamstringing the air force’s ability to dominate the skies over Lebanon or Syria.

And yet, none of these formal diplomatic complaints resulted in anything. As Iranian media reported overnight, Russia has delivered the first part of an advanced missile defense system to Iran, starting to equip Tehran with technology that was blocked before it signed a deal with world powers on its nuclear program.

The S-300 surface-to-air system was first deployed at the height of the Cold War in 1979. In its updated form it is one of the most advanced systems of its kind and, according to British security think tank RUSI, can engage multiple aircraft and ballistic missiles around 150 km (90 miles) away.

In a recorded transmission, state television showed Foreign Ministry spokesman Hossein Jaber Ansari telling a news conference on Monday: “I announce today that the first phase of this (delayed) contract has been implemented.”

Ansari was replying to reporters’ questions about videos on social media showing what appeared to be parts of an S-300 missile system on trucks in northern Iran.

More from Tasnim News:

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hossein Jaberi Ansari announced on Monday that the first phase of a contract with Russia on the sale of S-300 air defense missile system to Iran has been completed.

The first phase of the contract has run its course, Jaberi Ansari said at his weekly press briefing in Tehran on Monday, expressing the hope that all the phases of the deal will be implemented according to schedule.

…read more

Source: Iran Releases Video Confirming Receipt Of First Russian S-300 Missile System

    

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Bryan Adams has canceled a concert scheduled for April 14 in Mississippi to protest a new state law that critics describe as discriminatory.

…read more

Source: Bryan Adams cancels concert over anti-LGBT law

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By Tyler Durden

Two months after speculation and recurring headlines of an “imminent” OPEC meeting to first cut, then merely freeze (at record output levels) oil production, a meeting in which Iran is certain to not comply with any production curbs and the all important Saudis following suit, not even Goldman believes there is any upside from the meeting scheduled for this upcoming Sunday.

This is what Goldman commodity strategist Damien Courvalin said in a note released overnight.

OPEC and non-OPEC producers will meet next Sunday (April 17) in Doha to discuss a potential production freeze. We do not expect the meeting to deliver a bullish surprise as we believe production cuts make little sense given it has taken 18 months for the rebalancing to finally start. In addition, any resolute agreement that would support prices from current levels would prove self-defeating, in our view, as we believe that sustained low prices are required for the nascent non-OPEC supply adjustments to deliver a deficit in 2H16. Finally, a production freeze at recent production levels would not accelerate the rebalancing of the oil market as OPEC (ex. Iran) and Russia production levels have this year remained close to our 2016 average annual forecast of 40.5 mb/d. Importantly, the stable level of production achieved during the first three months of the year is due to transient disruptions whose reversal could add 500 kb/d to OPEC production, with Iran, the Neutral Zone and Libya potentially providing additional production growth in coming months. As a result, we see risks that even a production agreement could be followed by sequentially rising OPEC production given the multitude of potential sources of production growth.

Ultimately, while the market seems to have taken comfort in some form of OPEC help, press reports over the past weeks suggest that a production agreement is far from guaranteed. Net, we see greater odds that the Doha meeting delivers a bearish catalyst for oil prices. Interestingly, the oil options market is associating no risk premia to this meeting with Jun-16 Brent ATM implied volatility below Jul-16 ATM implied vol, the first time this has occurred heading into an OPEC meeting since June 2014. While it is difficult to assess consensus expectations ahead of the meeting, we believe that this upward sloping volatility curve is mispricing the potential moves on Monday, April 18, with our bias for lower prices. Finally, while we forecast that the balancing of the oil market will bring crude oil prices sustainably back into backwardation later this year, we believe that the recent flattening of the Brent forward curve is only transitory, reflecting the combination of production maintenance, especially in the North Sea, in the face of seasonally rising Atlantic basin refinery runs. As a result, we continue to believe that the balancing of the oil market requires sustained low prices with our 2Q16 forecast of $35/bbl.

Furthermore, this comes on the heels of news that Iraq just hit a fresh …read more

Source: Even Goldman Says OPEC Doha Meeting Will Be A Dud: "Don’t Expect A Bullish Surprise"

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