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By Tyler Durden

As most financial media will remind you, today is the 7 year anniversary of the market’s lows hit on March 9, 2009, a day when the Wall Street Journal wondered “How low can stocks go”, which took less than a week after Obama

Now, as Bloomberg writes, “investors are awash in angst, showing little faith the run can continue. They worry about contracting corporate earnings, slowing Chinese growth and uncertainty over interest rates. And they’re walking the talk by pulling cash from stocks at almost the fastest rate on record. It’s not unwarranted – the S&P 500 has gained just 0.5 percent in the last 18 months.”

What Bloomberg is confused by is that despite this unprecedented rally, after a brief period of inflows in 2013 and 2014, investors have been pulling money out of stocks at a record pace, leading not only Bloomberg but many others to dub the move in the market as the “most-hated rally ever.” What Bloomberg fails to note is that as everyone else has been selling, corporations have unleashed the biggest debt-funded stock buyback spree in history, providing the natural offset to wholesale selling by virtually everyone else, and allowing the market to barely dip over the past year.

To be sure, what happens next is unknown; yesterday Jeff Gundlach said that at this point the most recent bear market rally, which has taken the S&P 10% from its recent lows, is over and the risk/return profile is abysmal, offering 10 points of downside for every 1 points of upside, and concluding his presentation by saying “I think we are near the end of a bear market rally with a 10:1 risk/reward ratio.”

Bloomberg promptly took the other side, and argued that just because the rally is hated, and the “wall of worry” is growing, the next big move is likely to the upside. To wit:

[W]hen people withdraw money, stocks inversely tend to rise later, according to data since 1984. In the 12 instances when funds experienced monthly outflows that were at least 2 standard deviations from the historic mean, the S&P 500 rose an average 7.1 percent six months later, compared with a normal return of 3.9 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg and Investment Company Institute show.

[Once] things start to turn around, bears will be forced to buy. From Feb. 11 through Monday, a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. index of the most-shorted companies outperformed the S&P 500 by almost 16 percentage points, the most in data going back to 2008.

That, too, is nothing new. Back in 2013 we said that in a manipulated market, the only way to generate alpha is to do the opposite of what everyone else is doing in “Presenting The Best Trading Strategy Over The Past Year: Why Buying The Most Hated Names Continues To Generate “Alpha” …read more

Source: On The Seven Year Anniversary Of "The Most Hated Bull Market Ever" – How We Got Here

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By Tyler Durden

In this bipolar market, where only momentum, liquidity, technicals and short squeezes matter, as well as the occasional kneejerk reaction to a flashing red headline (usually some lie out of Venezuela or Nigeria about an imminent OPEC meeting which has not even been scheduled), one thing that no longer seems to have an impact on prices is actual news and fundamentals. So to help those who are blindly following the price of oil as an indicator of what is happening, here is a brief recap of the main news and research reports that should be impacting where oil trades today, but almost certainly won’t.

Among today’s key highlights compiled by Bloomberg we learn that JBC Energy doesn’t expect China to maintain record crude imports seen in Feb. as refinery maintenance, elevated storage impact. FGE says proposed producer accord to freeze output a “joke”, while Deutsche Bank says “fading oil demand may hamper price recovery.”

Here are the top stories via Bloomberg:

JBC Energy

• China probably can’t maintain Feb.’s record crude imports amid refinery maintenance, storage capacity limitations
• Feb. imports likely were boosted by “continued weakness in outright prices,” higher crude runs at teapot refineries

Facts Global Energy chairman Fereidun Fesharaki

• Deal to cap crude output at record “a joke”; production freeze is “nonsense”
• Libya can boost output to 1.2m b/d, taking prices down to $20/bbl

CNPC Chairman Wang Yilin

• Current $30-40/bbl oil price not sustainable; $50-60 a “reasonable” range
• Co. drafting development plans for long-term low oil price environment

Bloomberg story

• Oil producers slow to add hedges as they wait for higher prices
• As prices continue to rise, “we should see producer hedging accelerate,” says BNP Paribas head of commodity markets strategy Harry Tchilinguirian

Eurasia Group global energy, natural resources director Bruno Stanziale

• Oil at $50 will bring U.S. producers back to mkt
• Oil prices to see “gradual” rise to around $40/bbl by yr-end, avg. $50/bbl in 2017; price “volatility will dry up”

Institute for Energy Research

• U.S. shale oil boom makes renewable fuels standard obsolete, helped to reduce dependence on imports

JBC Energy

• European gasoline cracks to see further upside in coming wks on higher U.S. consumer demand
• Increased gasoline imports by Nigeria may be supporting Mediterranean market

Deutsche Bank report

• Fading Chinese oil demand may hamper price recovery
• Chinese fuel consumption “may begin to flatten more quickly than some long-term projections indicate.” This could reduce global oil demand growth to 800k b/d by 2024, compared w/ 1.1m b/d from 2000-2016

ESAI report

• Libyan production will not recover as “the ongoing civil war and the rise of ISIS in Libya will carry on for years”: Boston-based consultant

* * *

And now back to your liquidity/squeeze driven melt up/down.

…read more

Source: "Output Freeze A Joke", China Demand To Fall, And Other News That Should Be Moving Oil

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Meet the visionaries who are working on inventions that will have a huge impact on how we live.

…read more

Source: Carbon dioxide to chemo: They could change the world

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By Tyler Durden

It was just yesterday when we observed the record collapse across the Japanese curve when first the 10Y JGB plunged to an all time low -0.10%, followed promptly by 30Y yields dropping 21bps – the biggest absolute drop in over 3 years and biggest percentage drop ever – to a record low 47bps following Japan’s 30Year auction on Monday night. As we further noted, since Kuroda unleashed NIRP, the entire JGB curve has been crushed and the Monday night rush for long duration debt flattened the curve to record lows.

What a difference a day makes.

Just 24 hours later trading of Japan’s government bond futures was halted for less 30 second after the price of the contracts dropped as much as 0.6 percent. As Bloomberg reports, the dynamic circuit breaker on the Osaka Securities Exchange was activated at 12:32 p.m. and was applied to March contracts according to Masaki Takahashi, who works in the market management department at the Osaka Securities Exchange.

The website of the OSE parent Japan Exchange’s website said the circuit breaker is triggered “to temporarily halt trading in order to allow investors to calm down when the market is overly volatile.”

The reason for the trading halt is that a day after sliding to the lowest yield on record, on Wednesday the benchmark 10-year bond tumbled, pushing yields up eight basis points to minus 0.015 percent as of 2:51 p.m. Yields rebounded after dropping more than five basis points to a record minus 0.1 percent Tuesday. The selloff was triggered after an increase in selling into the BOJ’s POMO when the bid-to-cover ratio for debt with 10 to 20 years to maturity rose to 3.58 from 2.93 last week, indicating stronger investor demand to sell, and that investors were looking to offload inventory to the BOJ.

“Weak outcome of BOJ’s bond purchase, especially 10y-25y tenor, spurs selling JGBs given that yesterday’s rally was excessive move,” says Takenobu Nakashima, quantitative strategist at Nomura Securities.

The BOJ’s bond operation result spurred JGB selling “given that yesterday’s rally was excessive,” Nakashima said.

Here is the dramatic surge in yields, the biggest jump since February 12.

And here is the moment the price collapsed triggering the circuit breaker.

And so the market chaos even among the “safest” of securities, the result of central bank intervention, continues. Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow summarized it best:

Even with QEs creating what look an awful lot like bubbles, it’s been fair to say, those distortions reflected the reaction function of how central bankers interpreted the state of play. Yield levels, let alone negative rates, and volatility are making these guideposts increasingly questionable.

If you look at the yield curves of much of the world, you’d be hard pressed not to conclude we are very much still experiencing a severe global recession. Central bankers may strongly …read more

Source: Sudden Plunge In Japanese Government Bonds Triggers Circuit Breaker, Halts Market For 30 Seconds

    

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Source: Trump wins Hawaii

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A computer program built by Google has won the first round against the world’s top player of the ancient Chinese board game Go, signifying a significant advancement in artificial intelligence.

…read more

Source: World ‘Go’ champion loses to computer

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Man vs machine: On Wednesday, Lee Se-dol, the world champion of Asian board game Go, begins the first of five games against a crazy smart computer program built by Google.

…read more

Source: World ‘Go’ champion faces Google computer

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A Chipotle store in Massachusetts has been closed down for ‘full sanitation’ amid norovirus fears.

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Source: Chipotle store closes over norovirus fears

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By Michael Snyder

We just got more evidence that global trade is absolutely imploding.  Chinese exports dropped 25.4 percent during the month of February compared to a year ago, and Chinese imports fell 13.8 percent compared to a year ago.  For Chinese exports, that was the worst decline that we have seen since 2009, and Chinese imports have now fallen for 16 months in a row on a year over year basis.  The last time we saw numbers like this, we were in the depths of the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.  China accounts for more global trade than any other nation (including the United States), and so this is a major red flag.  Anyone that is saying that the global economy is in “good shape” is clearly not paying attention.

If someone would have told me a year ago that Chinese exports would be 25 percent lower next February, I would not have believed it.  This is not just a slowdown – this is a historic implosion.  The following comes from Zero Hedge…

Things are not getting better in China as Exports crashed 25.4% YoY (the 3rd largest drop in history), almost double the 14.5% expectation and Imports tumbled 13.8%, the 16th month of YoY decline – the longest ever. Altogether this sent the trade surplus down to $32.6bn (missing expectations of $51bn) to 11-month lows.

So much for that whole “devalue yourself to export growth” idea…

I don’t know how anyone can possibly dismiss the importance of these numbers.  As you can see, this is not just a one month aberration.  Chinese trade numbers have been declining for months, and that decline appears to be accelerating.

Another very interesting piece of news that has come out in recent days regards the massive layoffs that are coming at state industries in China.  According to Reuters, five to six million Chinese workers are going to be losing their jobs during this transition…

China aims to lay off 5-6 million state workers over the next two to three years as part of efforts to curb industrial overcapacity and pollution, two reliable sources said, Beijing’s boldest retrenchment program in almost two decades.

China’s leadership, obsessed with maintaining stability and making sure redundancies do not lead to unrest, will spend nearly 150 billion yuan ($23 billion) to cover layoffs in just the coal and steel sectors in the next 2-3 years.

For years, the Chinese economic miracle has been fueling global economic growth, but now things are changing dramatically.

Another factor that we should discuss is the fact that the relationship between the United States and China is going downhill very rapidly.  This is something that I wrote about yesterday.  China has seized control of several very important islands in the South China Sea, and in response the Obama administration has been sailing military vessels past the islands in a threatening manner.  Most recently, Obama decided to have an aircraft carrier task force cruise past the islands, and this provoked a very angry response <a target=_blank rel="nofollow" …read more

Source: Are You Kidding Me? Chinese Exports Plunge 25.4 Percent Compared To Last Year

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By Tyler Durden

As you might have noticed, Europe is falling apart.

Some manner of ambiguous “deal” with the Turks notwithstanding, the EU is going to collapse under the weight of the millions of asylum seekers that have inundated the bloc over the past 12 months.

At this juncture, the so-called Balkan Route has for all intents and purposes been closed (Angela Merkel’s protestations aside). This has left Greece in a terribly precarious situation. Tens of thousands of migrants are stuck now that Macedonia has sealed its borders, and barring some kind of dramatic breakthrough, Alexis Tsipras is going to watch as his country descends into chaos for the second time in 18 months.

But while multiple countries have now suspended the bloc’s beloved Schengen in an effort to “stop the madness,” as it were, it’s too late to stop the chaos. As we’ve documented extensively, Europe was remarkably resilient in the wake of the Paris attacks, but after New Year’s Eve, when (rightly or wrongly) adult male Mid-East asylum seekers garnered a reputation for sexual assault, sentiment soured. Markedly.

Since then, the entirety of the EU has been on high alert. Not for terrorists, but for sexual predators of “foreign origin.”

One particularly divisive issue is the extent to which officials have tended to “blame the victim”, so to speak. For instance, Cologne mayor Henriette Reker drew sharp criticism for suggesting that it was German womens’ duty to prevent assaults by keeping would-be assailants “at arm’s length.”

Then there was the now infamous case of the 17-year-old Danish girl who faced a fine from police after she allegedly used “illegal” pepper spray to deter an attacker.

Well, in the latest example of authorities suggesting that Europeans should adapt to threats rather than compelling authorities to protect citizens, police in Östersund advised women not to walk around by themselves at night, during at press conference on Monday.

“Women in a town in northern Sweden have been warned not to walk alone at night in the wake of a spike in violent assaults and attempted rapes,” The Daily Mail writes. “Police in Östersund made the unusual move to ask women not to go out unaccompanied after dark, after reports of eight brutal attacks, some by ‘men of foreign appearance’, in just over two weeks.” Here’s more:

It is extremely unusual for Swedish authorities to make such warnings, and it has not been well received in Sweden, a country proud of its progress in gender equality and women’s rights.

All incidents have taken place in Östersund since the 20th of February, and involved outdoor attacks where the perpetrators have been unknown to their female victims.

(Östersund)

A police spokesperson added that in addition to the increased frequency, the attacks are also conspicuous as – despite being carried out late at night – …read more

Source: Sweden Warns Women Not To Go Out Alone After Dark: "This Is Serious"

    

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